Dave Porter Weblog

Blair: "We Can Help China Embrace the Future"

Tony Blair's op-ed "We Can Help China Embrace the Future" in the Wall Street Journal (here):

.....During my 10 years as British leader, I could see the accelerating pace of China's continued emergence as a major power. I gave speeches about China, I understood it analytically. But I did not feel it emotionally and therefore did not fully understand it politically.

Since leaving office I have visited four times and will shortly return again. People ask what is the legacy of these Olympics for China? It is that they mark a new epoch -- an opening up of China that can never be reversed. It also means that ignorance and fear of China will steadily decline as the reality of modern China becomes more apparent.

Power and influence is shifting to the East. In time will come India, too. Some see all this as a threat. I see it as an enormous opportunity. But we have to exercise a lot of imagination and eliminate any vestiges of historic arrogance......

....This means that the West needs a strong partnership with China, one that goes deep, not just economically but politically and culturally. The truth is that nothing in the 21st century will work well without China's full engagement. The challenges we face today are global. China is now a major global player. So whether the issue is climate change, Africa, world trade or the myriad of security questions, we need China to be constructive; we need it to be using its power in partnership with us. None of this means we shouldn't continue to raise the issues of human rights, religious freedoms and democratic reforms as European and American leaders have done in recent weeks.

It is possible to hyperbolize about the rise of China. For example, Europe's economies are still major and combined outreach those of China and India combined. But, as the Olympics and its medal tables show, it is not going to stay that way. This is a historic moment of change. Fast forward 10 years and everyone will know it.

For centuries, the power has resided in the West, with various European powers including the British Empire and then, in the 20th century, the U.S. Now we will have to come to terms with a world in which the power is shared with the Far East. I wonder if we quite understand what that means, we whose culture (not just our politics and economies) has dominated for so long. It will be a rather strange, possibly unnerving experience. Personally, I think it will be incredibly enriching. New experiences; new ways of thinking liberate creative energy. But in any event, it will be a fact we have to come to terms with. For the next U.S. president, this will be or should be at the very top of the agenda, and as a result of the strength of the Sino-U.S. relationship under President Bush, there is a sound platform to build upon.

Oregonian:China's "Retail Tourists" ripe with potential for Portland

Laura Gunderson's Oregonian article "China's 'retail tourists' ripe with potential for Portland:"

A Chinese film crew in town to shoot the Rose City for a television travel show was surprised at how few items Portlanders picked up at Wednesday's downtown farmer's market.

Chinese shoppers, they said, load up on many more fruits, vegetables and meat at their farmer's markets.

In part, it's buying habits such as those that two businesswomen aim to import on a much larger scale -- think Prada and Gucci, instead of peppers and goat cheese.

Liying Zheng, chief executive of the firm Beaverton-based Pacific Education & Cultural Exchange Center, helped bring the film crew here hoping that after the Portland episode airs this fall, Chinese from a handful of wealthier provinces recently approved to tour the U.S. will add a Portland stop to their itineraries for a day of sales-tax-free shopping.

The notion of retail tourism -- playing up a destination's haute couture offerings -- has picked up in recent years, yet a weakened U.S. dollar and a sluggish domestic economy make foreign shoppers all the more welcome. And China, tourism and retail experts agree, offers untapped potential.

Changes this spring to agreements between the U.S. and China now allow travel by tourist groups from seven provinces, including JiangSu, the region in which Portland's sister city, Suzhou, is located.

Last year, 40 million Chinese traveled abroad, said Tong Defa, China's consul in San Francisco. Some 300,000 traveled to the U.S. for business, academic or government-relations work.

"Oregon has a lot potential" for Chinese tourism, said Defa, referring to Portland's relationship with Suzhou and Oregon's sister state of Fujian province.

The Chinese most likely to visit Oregon are more sophisticated, looking to see both the state's natural beauty along with Portland's growing collection of local independent as well as high-end boutiques, such as Tiffany & Co. and Luis Vuitton, said Jin Lan, president of the Oregon-Fujian Sister State Association. They're also likely to drop an average of $2,000 to $3,000 per person per trip, he said.

Lan's association is working to bring another TV crew to Portland from Xiamen, a city within Fujian, and has invited Chinese photographers to capture the state's scenic attractions, such as Crater Lake and Mount Hood.

"Right now, the efforts are sort of fragmented," Lan said. "If we could direct our efforts together, we'd be much more powerful."

An initial group of 240 Chinese tourists arrived in the U.S. in mid-June, hitting New York, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and San Francisco, where in less than an hour group members spent $8,000 at an Apple store, said Zheng's business partner, Jenny Dong.

"The U.S. is one big giant discount shopping mall," said Scott Krugman, spokesman for the National Retail Federation. Although his association doesn't track retail tourism, Krugman said chambers of commerce in several places, including New York and Chicago, have launched marketing campaigns to draw international shoppers.

Portland has competition. Seattle planned to open a travel office in Beijing on July 1, following other states -- including Nevada, the first state to market itself there in 2004 -- and Los Angeles. Hawaii opened its second office there this summer.

Next month, Nevada will host the first of about 100 Chinese tourists visiting the West, said Bethany Drysdale, spokeswoman for the state's Commission on Tourism. Past groups of Chinese journalists and businessmen snapped up belt buckles and turquoise jewelry, she said.

"They always want to see the Grand Canyon and the Vegas strip -- the American sites," she said. "Then we leave them for the evening and the next morning they tell us about all the shopping they did after we went to bed."

Retail-tourism prospects sound entirely plausible to Sho Dozono, the travel agency owner who helped with a similar effort nearly 25 years ago.

In 1984, a television show filmed in Bend, "From Oregon with Love," aired in Japan and soon gained a loyal following that Dozono said helped lead Delta to reinstate a direct flight to Tokyo, bring tens of thousands of tourists and spur business investments here.

"The only way to get the message out about Portland there is through mass media. No one could afford a marketing campaign on that scale," he said. "This may give us only 20 minutes of TV exposure, but you hope it's building a relationship."

Portland will be among several U.S. cities featured in JiangSu Broadcasting's travel series, "Chinese People See the World," expected to air in October.

As part of filming beginning last week, a two-man crew visited, among other places, a local winery, the Columbia Gorge, the coast and several retail destinations, including Northwest 23rd Avenue and the Pearl District. On Wednesday, they followed shoppers at the farmers market, zooming in for one shot on potatoes (common in Chinese markets) and in another berries (not so familiar back home).

With translating and interviewing help from Dong, producer Yulong Wei called out questions while the cameraman filmed shoppers wandering through a midmorning mist.

"In China, we always say if there's a good thing or good place that's hiding, people will find you," Wei said. "Portland is a beautiful place that Chinese people don't know. But they'll want to make an effort to come here."

Kristof: "Slipping Over the Great Firewall of China"

From Nicholas D. Kristof's NT Times op-ed article "Slipping Over the Great Firewall of China:"

Yet the underlying trend in recent years is the opposite. For all the continuing repression, Chinese live far freer lives now than when I lived in Beijing in the 1980s and ’90s. Ordinary citizens can now easily travel abroad, choose their own housing and jobs, and move to whatever Chinese city they want to.

Then there is the Internet.

It’s true that the government censors critical Web sites and closes down troublesome blogs. Yet there aren’t nearly enough censors to manage the job, and many Chinese are quite adept at technological ladders over the Great Firewall of China. Objectionable posts are deleted by censors, but then are quickly reposted on 50 different platforms.

This is a cat-and-mouse game in which the spotlight is usually on the mice when they get caught: China has more Internet commentators in prison than any other country. But the larger truth is that the mice are winning this game, not the cats.

Friedman: "Melting Pot Meets Great Wall"

From Tom Friedman's NY Times op-ed "Melting Pot Meets Great Wall":

The problem for China, though, is that environmentalism is a bottom-up movement in the rest of the world. While it requires a strong government to pass regulations from the top, it also can’t work without a strong, independent civil society acting as a watchdog, spotlighting polluters and suing businesses that do not comply. China can be green for the two weeks of the Olympics from the top down, but it can’t be green for the next 20 years without more bottom up.

That said, there are some things we could learn from China, namely the ability to focus on big, long-term, nation-building goals and see them through. A Chinese academic friend tells me that the success of the Olympics is already prompting some high officials to argue that only a strong, top-down, Communist Party-led China could have organized the stunning building projects around these Olympics and the focused performance of so many different Chinese athletes. For instance, the Chinese have no tradition of rowing teams, but at these Games, out of nowhere, Beijing fielded a women’s quadruple sculls crew that won China’s first Olympic gold medal in rowing.

Philip Pan on Bill Moyer show

Journalist and author Philip Pan appeared on the Bill Moyers show here. He also put forth his answer to the questposed on the comments blog on the Bill Moyer's website. The question "Will Capitalism Bring Democracy to China?" here

“I think we have this assumption in the West that capitalism, that free markets lead to free societies, that capitalism will lead to democracy in China, that it’s almost an automatic process. Once income levels reach a certain level there, that this political [change] is going to happen in China, just as it did in other parts of the world. My argument would be that it’s not automatic, certainly. We’ve seen 30 years now of strong economic growth, and the [Communist] Party is arguably stronger now than it has been ever in these past 30 years. The Party has been able to use capitalism to strengthen its hold on power.

At the same time, though, the party has retreated in many ways. People have much more personal freedom than ever before. Because so many people have been lifted out of poverty, they have many more options in life. So it’s a mixed picture, but I think it would be naïve for policy makers to assume that this is going to be an automatic process, that we just have to continue to trade with China and the political change is just going to happen.”

Internet In China

Handbook of Online China

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: web trend trends)

OSU in NY Times: Bringing International Students to OSU

Bringing more foreign students to the campuses of Oregon's universities is a good thing. The international exposure is good for our students. Maybe some of those foreign students will bring needed perspectives and skills to our state's economy. And maybe OSU will make money off the fees charged. So, on the one hand, I want to applaud OSU for its partnering with ONTO to do so. However, on the other hand, I worry that Oregon already sends far fewer of our students to study abroad compared with students from other countries who come to Oregon to study. I worry that the financial incentives and desire to expand programs on campuses in Oregon are far greater than incentives to send Oregon students to other countries.

The NY Times article "College and Company Link UpTo Lure Foreigner" is here.

Last month, Oregon State University announced a joint venture with INTO University Partnerships, a privately held British firm, for a program to start in fall 2009. INTO, which also runs similar programs at several British universities, is in discussions with other American universities.

At Oregon State, INTO and the university will split the tuition from the program — probably the university’s out-of-state rate, almost $19,000.

Sabah Randhawa, executive vice president of Oregon State, said the university had, for several years, wanted to double its international student body, but has lacked “the resources to develop the infrastructure to sustain recruiting overseas.”

Oregon officials said the program will help diversify the student body, as well as bring in $15 million to $25 million dollars a year, while allowing the university to retain academic control. They cited the experience at INTO’s first partner, the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, where they said the program grew to 540 students in two years, with two-thirds continuing into the degree programs.

But at some British universities, instructors fought INTO programs, saying they were worried that the company would be more interested in profit than in teaching. Some Oregon State faculty were also wary.

“In November, they told us they were thinking about this great program that wouldn’t cost the university anything and would generate millions of dollars,” said Deborah Healey, who until recently directed the university’s English Language Institute.

But even though the institute faculty, with their long years of experience, have been promised they will remain university employees, new instructors hired for the program, she said, are likely to be INTO employees, with less college teaching experience.

Mr. Randhawa said that while the university will definitely play a role in hiring instructors for the program, it has not yet been decided whether they will be INTO or university employees.

Link to OSU press release is here.

"We are ready for a fight to control the scientific high ground..."

NY Times article by David Barboza titled "China's Ambition Soars to High-Tech Industry:"

No longer content to be the home of low-skilled, low-cost, low-margin manufacturing for toys, pens, clothes and other goods, Chinese companies are trying to move up the value chain, hoping eventually to challenge the world’s biggest corporations for business, customers, power and recognition.

The government is backing the drive with a two-pronged approach: using incentives to encourage companies to innovate, but also moving to discourage low-end manufacturers from operating in southern China. That step would reverse one of the crucial engines of this country’s spectacular economic rise.

But by introducing tougher labor and environmental standards and ending tax breaks for thousands of factories here, the government has sent a powerful signal about its global ambitions, and helped encourage an exodus of factories from an area long considered the world’s shop floor.

President Hu Jintao hinted at China’s vaulting ambitions during a meeting of China’s scientific elite last June at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, where he called on scientists to challenge other countries in high technology. “We are ready for a fight,” he said, “to control the scientific high ground and earn a seat on the world’s high technology board. We will make some serious efforts to strengthen our nation’s competence.”

Government policies now favor high-tech economic zones, research and development centers and companies that promise higher salaries and more skills. A computer chip plant being built by Intel in the northern city of Dalian is welcomed; a textile mill churning out $1 pairs of socks is not.

Ted Koppel on "The People"s Republic of China"

Ted Koppel in an interview with Charlie Rose about his Discovery Channel four hour TV series “The People’s Republic of Capitalism” says:

What you see there is long range planning. What you see is five year olds and six year olds learning English and computer science. They don’t know it yet, but they are being trained to compete in the global economy. Our school system is on balance a better school system because it allows for creativity. It allows a certain freedom of thought that the Chinese system doesn’t allow. But imagine tens of millions of Chinese children learning English, and they’re not learning English so that they can work on some conveyor belt making cheap toys that are going to be sold at K-Mart or Walmart. These kids are going to be managers. These kids are going to be running heavy industries. These kids are going to be competing with us on our level.

The following interview is about 39 minutes long. The first 8 minutes plus are on Iraq, then the discussion turns to Koppel’s series “The People’s Republic of Capitalism.” It includes some video clips of the series. The Discovery Channel website on the series is at http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/koppel/highlights/highlights.html.

Carnegie: “China’s economic size will match America’s by 2035 and double it by midcentury.”

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a paper “China’s Economic Rise – Fact or Fiction” by it Senior Associate Albert Keidel. It forecasts:

The world will be a very different place by midcentury. In terms of commercial exchange rate conversions to dollars, China’s total economy will be twice as large as America’s, while its standard of living will be higher than America’s is today though only two-thirds of America’s at that time.

And further:

A Chinese economy more than double the size of America’s will almost certainly give China global commercial and institutional leadership. In commerce, China will take the lead in shaping trade and investment patterns. Fluctuations in its domestic demand will send ripples around the world, including in the United States. Market surveys will focus on China first. Its monetary policies will affect liquidity and interest rates everywhere. Its securities markets will be the world’s largest and will heavily influence global standards for due diligence. Finally, its commercial and fiscal largesse will give it entrée to national capitals in all hemispheres. Thus, China’s financial clout will spill into every conceivable dimension of international relations.

      Leadership of international institutions will gravitate toward China. This movement could include the equivalents at that time of the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, regional international development banks, and more specialized bodies. Various headquarters could shift to Beijing and Shanghai. The United States will have an important secondary influence, like Europe, but it will need to compromise, and its sphere for unilateral action will be increasingly curtailed.

"UO receives largest gifts ever for international scholarships"

From The Asian Reporter (here), 7/22/08:

The University of Oregon (UO) recently received its largest-ever gifts for international scholarships. The funds will provide opportunities for UO students to study abroad as well as money for international students visiting Oregon. The donations will also be used to encourage UO students to become interns in developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America as well as the first study abroad scholarship for UO students majoring in international studies.

“The ability to travel and study abroad is a critical part of becoming a successful citizen in today’s world,” said UO President Dave Frohnmayer. “I am delighted that more students will now have these opportunities because of these very generous donors.”

UO sponsors more than 150 study abroad programs in more than 80 countries. According to the “Open Doors 2007 Report on International Educational Exchange” (published by the Institute of International Education), UO ranks among the top 20 public research institutions for the percentage of undergraduates who participate in study abroad programs.

UO welcomed more international students (1,187) to campus last fall than any year since 2001, when visa regulations were tightened. About six percent of the university’s student body is international, coming from nearly 90 countries. Among the donors are Timothy and Virginia Cha Foo of San Francisco, California, who donated $1.6 million to endow the Dr. Cha Chi Ming International Scholarship for students coming from China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau as well asUOstudents pursuing their studies in those locations.

Timothy Foo received his master’s degree in music in 1968 and a doctorate in musical arts in 1973, and Virginia Foo earned her bachelor’s degree in interior architecture in 1971. Both are originally from Hong Kong and met when they were UO international students in the late 1960s.

“We especially would like to see more students coming to the UO from greater China,” said Timothy Foo. “We received cholarships from the university, and we want to help make sure money will be
available for other international students.”

Other gifts include $1 million from Richard and Gerrie Leeds of Irvine, California for the Richard and Gerrie Leeds International Travel Fund, which will provide travel stipends for study abroad and international internship students, and $500,000 from Judy Fosdick Oliphant of Lafayette, California to fund scholarships for UO students majoring in international studies to assist with study abroad expenses.

The gifts bring the total raised for scholarships during “Campaign Oregon:Transforming Lives” to more than $93 million. To learn more about the UO International Studies and Study Abroad
Programs, visit www@uoregon.edu/~isp> or studyabroad.@uoregon.edu.

The University of Oregon press release is here.

George Will: "Double down on China"

 Charlie Rose interviews George Will, columnist and author of the recent book"One Man's America:" (China specific comments begin at 4 minutes 35 seconds)

"We have made that wager and should double down. We should assume that the more China becomes integrated into the world, like Guilliver among the Lilliputian's, bound down by all kinds of agreements with the external world, like the World Trade Organization, that, over time, it will have a meliorative effect on Chinese tyranny. But, it is still a wager. That's what we have to bear in mind. It's not a certainty. It's a bet."

Khanna: "China is doing business their way."

Tavis Smiley interviews Parag Khanna, author of "The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order;" (China specific comments begin at 5 minutes 20 seconds)

3 Rebecca Fannin Articles

Three Rebecca Fannin articles:

(1) "Wake up, Silicon Valley! Chinese Lessons for American Entrepreneurs:"

The best and brightest U.S. entrepreneurs might have to take steroids to keep up with their counterparts in China. For energy, motivation and raw talent, American entrepreneurs just cannot compare.

One of the superstars of China's digital media boom is Joe Chen. A maverick entrepreneur who reads Warren Buffet and Jack Welch books in his spare time, Chen just raised a record sum -- $430 million! -- to ramp up his startup. It's an all-in-one Facebook, MySpace and YouTube look-alike called Oak Pacific Interactive.

If you think it's been easy for Chen, watch this video and see how he's had to face layoffs and sudden market shifts due largely to new government regulations. It's all part of his struggle to find the "right DNA" to make Oak Pacific grow, Chen says, as "strong and sturdy as a Sequoia tree." And to also wrestle with his own human nature to want to take on too much at the same time! Chen himself says one of his character failures is an inability to spot risk -- that's true of the best entrepreneurs anywhere. For to achieve something extraordinary, you must do something "extra-ordinary." continues

(2) "China Labs":

Here, at the grand ballroom of the China World Hotel in Beijing, the chairman of Microsoft China, Ya-Qin Zhang, has the podium and the audience's attention. "China is quickly emerging from a low-cost manufacturer to a high-tech innovator," he says.

Why is China becoming a lab for the world? Zhang lists Chinese government policies to foster innovation, improved intellectual property protection, strong economic growth, a huge talent pool of well-trained computer scientists and increased research and development spending.

Already, China ranks 7th in the world for the number of international patent applications -- 5456 in 2007 alone, an increase of 38% over the previous year, Zhang notes. By 2009, China's position will rise to 4th globally for new patent applications, he predicts, right after the U.S., Japan and Germany. continues

(3) "Cleantech"

It's one of those clear, blue-sky days in Beijing -- one of the very few I've seen during the last two weeks, where a grey dusty hue has covered the landscape (sandstorm or not). I take care to stay indoors as much as possible, and when riding in a taxi, ask the driver to roll up the windows and turn on the air conditioner. Otherwise, I risk tearing eyes, runny nose and a hacking cough -- effects caused by the air pollution.

But count on the Chinese government to continue its clean-up of the air as the Beijing Olympics comes closer. Things have definitely improved since 2002, when I started coming to China regularly. And much of this progress has to do with efforts by the government and private sector to invest in clean technology. Joining in are venture capital investors such as the high-profile Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia Capital as well as a handful of Chinese funds that have earmarked cleantech sectors as a high priority.

Certainly, much financing is needed. The Chinese government's 11th, five-year economic plan pinpoints that $867 billion is needed for the massive clean-up. Yet only $382 billion has been invested, according to managing director Ka Keung Chan of London-based Climate Change Capital, who heads a team in Beijing looking for emerging cleantech companies to finance. continues

Fred Krupp: Influencing China on Global Warming

Environmental Defense Fund President Fred Krupp discusses how the U.S. and other developed nations can influence the environmental impacts of China: (3 minutes 45 seconds:

China's earthquake

Western China is still digging out from the 7.9 earthquake that hit on 5/12. Time is running out for anyone still alive under rubble. I can think of no greater horror that could come into my life than to stand-by, watching, as worker dig through the rubble of a collapsed school building for survivors, perhaps including my only child. Two videos are below. The first shows university students in their dorm room at Sichuan University as the earthquake hit. The second is an Australian TV update (as of 5/15). Locally Mercy Corps is collecting donations to help the survivors, see here.

The Sichuan University Students during the earthquake:

Australian TV Update:

Additionally, NPR radio had a team in Chengdu when the earthquake struck. They have the sound of the earthquake hitting here.

Youtube: Chinese Political Protest Poem

An example of the Chinese response to criticism over Tibet.

Published text, video varies a little -

A Poem Dedicated to the last 150 years of this planet.

By a Silent, Silent Chinese.

When we were called the Sick Man of Asia, we were the Yellow Peril.
When we are billed to be the next Superpower, we are a threat.

When we closed our doors, you smuggled drugs to our markets.
When we embraced Free Trade, you blame us for taking away your jobs.

When we were falling apart, you marched in your troops and wanted your “fair share”.
When we were putting the broken pieces together again, “Free Tibet” you scream, “it was an invasion!”

So, we tried communism, you hated us for being communists
When we embraced capitalism, you hate us for being capitalists.

When we have a billion people, you said we were destroying the planet.
When we tried limiting our numbers, you said it is human rights abuse.

When we were poor, you thought we were dogs.
When we loan you cash, you blame us for your debts.

When we build our industries, you called us polluters.
When we sell you goods, you blame us for global warming.

When we buy oil, you call that exploitation and genocide.
When you fight for oil, you call that liberation and democracy.

When we were lost in chaos and rampage, you wanted rule of law for us.
When we uphold law and order against violence, you call that violating human rights.

When we were silent, you said you want us to have free speech.
When we were silent no more, you say we are brainwashed racists.

Why do you hate us so much? We asked.
“No,” you answered, “We don’t hate You.”

We don’t hate you either,
But do you understand us?

“Of course we do,” You said,
“We have NBC, CNN and BBCs…”

What do you really want from us?
Think hard first, then answer…

Because you only get so many chances,
Enough is enough, enough Hypocrisy for this one world.

We want one world, one dream, and peace on Earth.
This big blue Earth is big enough for all of Us.

Fareed Zakaria & Charlie Rose

Fareed Zakaria, author of the recent book "The Post-American World," on the Charlie Rose show: (5/1/08)

China and "The New Internatinal Energy Order"

From the National Public Radio interview (4/14/08) “Oil and ‘the New International Energy Order’”with Michael Klare, author of "Rising Power, Shrinking Planet." Regarding China, Michael Klare says:

This is the great challenge for the entire planet. China does have one source of energy in abundance, and that is coal. China is the world’s leading user of coal. And it intends to use much more coal in the future. By the year 2030, it is expected that China will use half of the world’s coal. And unfortunately China intends to use a kind of primitive, by modern standards, coal burning facilities to generate electricity. And, if this continues to be the case, we are all hostage on the planet to China's coal use, because this will be the leading source of green house gas, carbon dioxide producing emissions. And there will be no hope of averting the worse global climate change disasters. So, we have all got to work with China. This is really a catastrophic phenomenon. We have got to work with China to either abandon its reliance on coal or to adopt more modern, less carbon dioxide emitting coal facilities….

We use to think of national security as meaning building up nuclear weapons for a possible war with China. We have to think of our national security as working with China not to burn coal at the rate they are doing because our survival on the planet is at risk from this. If we grasp reality, we will understand the necessity of cooperating with China in developing energy alternatives. It is a matter of survival.

 

"The China Syndrome"

From "The China Syndrome" by Michael Klare:

On February 4, President Bush announced a baseline   military budget of $515.4 billion for the next fiscal year, not including funds   for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is the largest one-year Pentagon   request in real, uninflated dollars since World War II. This Fiscal Year (FY)   2009 figure represents a 7.5% increase over the 2008 appropriation of $479.5   billion and is expected to be the first of many rising requests supposedly needed   to replace equipment lost and damaged in Iraq and to gear up for the security   threats to come. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen explained   last October, "we're just going to have to devote more resources to national   security in the world we're living in right now."

At first glance, all these additional funds will be used to sustain the Global   War on Terror (GWOT, in Pentagon shorthand) and replace equipment destroyed   or rendered inoperable in the wars now under way. "The Fiscal Year 2009   Defense budget request sustains the President's commitment to growing U.S. ground   forces that are needed to prevail in the current conflicts in Iran and Afghanistan,"   a Pentagon   press release notes. Additional funds are allocated for "Operations,   Readiness, and Support"  –  troop training, replacement parts and equipment,   combat supplies, and so on.

But a close examination of the FY 2009 request indicates that the principal   sources of future budget growth are not the GWOT or other such low-intensity   contingencies but rather preparation for all-out combat with a future superpower.   Probe a little deeper into Pentagon thinking, and only one potential   superpower emerges to justify all this vast spending: The People's Republic   of China.... (more)