Global Strategies

Adams Sees Trade Sector Opportunities: China and Apparel Design

Mayor-elect Sam Adams talks about his economic plan for Portland in an Oregon Business Magazine interview with Abraham Hyatt titled “The Adams Doctrine: Portland’s Mayor-to-be offers a sneak preview of his economic plan, short on strategy but long on hope.” (here) In part, he says:

 

There will be a lot of individual opportunities but developing our relationship with China and developing our design apparel sector are the greatest opportunities for improving our traded sector. I will tell you having spent almost two weeks in China that the place is an environmental disaster. And they need what we have in terms of sustainable design, in terms of urban planning, in terms of green and sustainable architecture and land-use planning. I mean, it’s a huge market — they’re going to build 40 brand-new cities of one million people or more in the next two decades. I sat next to a major developer at lunch and he’s like, “We can’t hire enough building designers.” And this particular developer has embraced the LEED concept out of the United States. A: He believes in it; and B: he knows that if he does that he’s going to get a higher percentage of foreign buyers in his projects. So there’s an opportunity for little old Portland, little bitty Portland.

At the same time we have Adidas, Nike, Columbia Sportswear; we have [footwear maker] Keen. These are four or five of some of the biggest apparel firms and they’re importing their design talent. They can be partners with us to make sure we have a national-class design school. I’m interested in partnering up with the best European or Asian design schools to have an outpost here in Portland. The global economy plays a very big role in my mind because — whether I like it or not is not the question — my job is to make sure Portland and the Portland region and the state succeed in it. I intend to do whatever I can from the public side to provide leadership or to use this office as a bully pulpit and get the players to work together. If we’re building those partnerships then I think we can move quickly in terms of being best in our class in some areas. You know, if we’re not best in our class in the green and sustainable industries then shame on us — it was ours to lose.

 

He is 100% right in seeing the China’s market as an economic opportunity for Portland businesses. Any country that might have an economy twice the size of the US economy is. China is a very big opportunity.

 

Looking further at Adams’ draft plan, two of his ten points have an international aspect:

 

7) Increase Exports of Local Products and Services

The US dollar has lost upwards of 30% of its value in the recent past against other foreign currencies. The upside of this fact is that Portland products and services are now relatively cheaper abroad – and so we have the opportunity to bring new resources into the region even as our national economy slows. Oregon's export shipments in 2006 totaled $15.3 billion – which represents approximately 10% of our state’s GDP. Top export industries are computer and electronic products, transportation equipment, and machinery manufacturers. With the dollar weakening overseas, and increased demand for our exports, how do we help our smaller firms tap into international markets and global trade?

 

• Host a global trade summit with elected leaders, residents, trade unions, business to discuss trade-related opportunities, increase participation in trade missions and

strengthen joint public/private strategies. The summit would:

• Advertise available resources, such as the Oregon Economic and Community Development Departments International’s program to assist in export strategies to Asia

• Encourage local businesses to form Export Networks. By cooperating in strategic areas – and linking to experts in country- or industry-specific markets -- these local businesses will be able to exploit opportunities beyond the reach of individual firms.

• Provide a forum for businesses to discuss issues of significance for achieving export success with public decision makers from PDC, the Port of Portland, the Small Business Administration and the Oregon Economic and Community Development Department. New Investment: $10,000

• Support regional effort to provide Export Strategy Assistance. This best practice, commonly called “Economic Gardening,” assists companies with their export capabilities and prospects, and will use an accredited consultant to develop a practical export market plan that integrates export activity into a company's business plan. New City Investment: $50,000

8) Support Tourism Industry

Amid the slowdown in residential construction, our tourism industry is thriving with traveler-spending up by 5.3% over last year and hotel occupancy at 76.2% -- 13 points higher than the national average. Thanks to the weak dollar and Portland’s emerging reputation, the Portland metro area should continue to see an increase in conventions and visitors and visitor spending.

• Maintain our support to Travel Portland and work with partners to publicize Portland’sworld class arts & culture events to amplify the positive trends in the tourism industry. At the same time, we can work with the Workforce Investment Board and industry employers to help make sure the new jobs created provide career pathways and other opportunities for advancement. New City Investment: No additional resource

 

I think Adams is on to something. Portland’s optimal future is to be a new international city – a concentration of creative knowledge workers well connected to global markets. I think he is starting to see and define this in discussion with others. This is great. He just needs to see that the strategic upgrading of public educations world (foreign) language programs and study abroad opportunities is essential to this emerging vision. We need knowledge workers in Portland who know foreign markets. We should both train them here and import them.

SF Bay Area transforming into "Electric Vehicle Capital of the U.S?"

Governor Kulongoski and Mayor-elect Adams are both pursuing an electric car future for Oregon. Governor Kulongoski is now on a trade mission to Japan and China wooing electric car manufacturers to set up shop in Oregon. Mayor Adams has been to China and plans to go again. I support their efforts. But there is competition.

 

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome announced (here):

 

Yesterday, joined by San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed and Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums I announced a nine-step policy plan for transforming the Bay Area into the "Electric Vehicle (EV) Capital of the U.S." In support of this initiative, Better Place, a global electric transportation company announced that it would enter the U.S. market with California as its first state, beginning in the Bay Area.

Electric vehicles represent an overarching, game-changing solution that allows us to transform, and recharge the American transportation sector for the 21st century. By accelerating the conversion of the car industry from its oil dependent past, to a new electric century, we can jump start the car industry, eliminate our dependence on oil, reduce our required presence in the middle east, create millions of jobs, and eliminate a significant portion of our CO2 emissions.

This plan ties together a triangle of influence that can get our nation back on track: Detroit car makers who know how to scale production, working in concert with San Francisco's culture of innovation, aided by Sacramento and Washington DC policy-making. The goal is to create a sustainable strategic advantage for the US instead of a series of bailouts.

As California prepares to launch this electric recharge infrastructure project, it can also serve as a blueprint for a more widely integrated solution.

And this is their nine-point policy plan:

1.      Expedited permitting and installation of electric vehicle charging outlets at homes, business, parking lots, and other buildings throughout the Bay Area;

2.      Incentives for employers to install EV charging systems in their workplace and provide similar incentives to parking facilities and other locations where EV charging stations can be installed;

3.      Harmonize local regulations and standards across the region that govern EV infrastructure to achieve regulatory consistency for EV companies as well as expanded range for EV consumers;

4.      Establish common government programs that promote the purchase of EVs;

5.      Link EV programs and infrastructure to regional transit and air quality programs;

6.      Establish programs for aggressive pooled-purchase orders for EVs in municipal, state government and private sector fleets and future commitment of purchasing preference for EV vehicles;

7.      Expedited permitting and approval for facilities that provide extended-range driving capability for EVs in the region through battery exchange locations or fast-charging;

8.      Identify and secure suitable standard (110V) electric outlets for charging low voltage EVs in every government building in 2009; and

9.      Identify roll-out plan for placement of 220V EV charging equipment throughout each city including city parking lots and curbside parking.

I am not aware of a similar plan for Oregon or Portland, although I am sure both are working on parts of it.

Here is Better Place's plan for California. Where is such a plan for Oregon? Where are our entrepreneurs to set up a competitor to Better Place in making and installing the needed infrastructure?

.

 

Prof. Callahan: “Who Is China?” – “Wolf Totem” and Identity

Professor of International Politics William Callahan (visiting PSU from U. of Manchester, England) spoke at Pacific Northwest College of Art on “Who Is China? Writers and artists dream of the future.”  Callahan explained briefly the views of Chinese public intellectuals - philosopher Zhao Tingyang, writer Jiang Rong, film directors Zhang Yimou and Ang Lee and artist Cai Guo-Qiang.

 

The lecture was a bit alarming. While Washington politicians ask “Will China become a responsible international stakeholder?” and China’s leaders speak of “a peacefully rising China working for a harmonious world,” Callahan presented the sometimes disturbing views of its leading artists on the Chinese identity and role in the world.

 

The most interesting and, to me, disturbing was writer Jiang Rong and his book “Wolf Totem” (2004). “Wolf Totem” sold 25 million copies (only 10% legal) and is China’s number two all-time best seller after Mao’s “Little Red Book.” “Wolf Totem” tells the story of a young man from Beijing who goes to work in Inner Mongolia during the Cultural Revolution (see wiki here). He finds attributes of the nomads and wolves, such as “ferocity, strength, and violence,” as the best model for China’s future. The general argument seems to be that the Chinese have been sheep and need to become more wolf like. A bit of an alarming notion to me.

 

Zhang Yimow made the movie “Hero” about an assassin who ultimately becomes the hero by refusing to kill the emperor because the emperor provides order and to kill him would bring on chaos. Here is a scene from “Hero.”

 

Cai Guo-Qiang (see wiki here) creates explosive and violent art, and is known for his fireworks. He did the Olympic fireworks. While his works are open to a variety of interpretations, their destructive, violent aspects are disturbing. Several of his works follow.

Video: Gov. K drives Nissan electric car in Japan: “The future is now.”

Governor Kulongoski is now on a trade mission to Japan and China.  Rich Read’s article “Nissan plugs into Oregon’s green vision, selecting state to help debut electric vehicles” in the Oregonian reports (here):

Perry, product-planning director for Nissan North America, called Portland General Electric Co., which had installed its first station outside its downtown headquarters.

Perry, PGE and Gov. Ted Kulongoski soon hatched the deal announced Wednesday by Nissan Motor Co.'s chief executive at the Los Angeles Auto Show. The Japanese automaker will include Oregon among a handful of sites worldwide to pioneer zero-emission vehicles, starting in 2010 with government and commercial fleets.

Details -- such as numbers of cars and their costs -- were still being negotiated even as Kulongoski drove a prototype Nissan electric vehicle in Japan this week….

…..Nissan's Perry declined to speculate how many electrics would come to Oregon. He said the number would be "significant." Nissan will have no production constraints, he said.

"This is not a test," Perry said. "This is not a demo. This is a first move to mass-marketing."

3,000 cars for Japan
In Japan's Kanagawa prefecture, Nissan managers aim to introduce 3,000 electric vehicles by 2014. Other international launch sites are Israel, Denmark and Portugal.

The only other U.S. site so far is Tennessee, site of Nissan's U.S. headquarters in Nashville and one of its two U.S. factories. Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen signed a memorandum of understanding in July but charging stations have yet to be installed there, said Will Pinkston, a senior aide to the governor.

"It seems like the Oregon conversation may be a little further along," Pinkston said. "Nissan has not given us any details about what the price point might be or what they expect to see on the road in the immediate future."

Governor Kulongoski frames the issue right in the following video when he says:

 Automobiles contribute about 40% of the CO2 emissions. If you can move the public from their automobiles to an electric car, you’re going to have a substantial impact on reducing CO2 emissions. It’s going to go a long way to addressing the climate change debate, and, I think, in the end it’s a much more economical car. It gives our country energy independence.

 

Governor Kulongoski’s on the right road with the right cars. I look forward to the details.

Time to Reallocate Missile Defense $'s to Study Abroad in China $'s

Oregon needs money to send high school students to study abroad in China for a month or two each summer. 1,650 Oregon high school students (about 5% of a graduating class) could spend a month in China in the summer living with a Chinese family and studying Mandarin for about $5 million. A similar national program sending 165,000 students to China for a summer month would cost $500 million. This is the new world our next generations will live in. This should be a funding priority.

I know where to get the money. Oregon will not have it. The economy is in a dive and tax revenues are dropping. The budget battle in the 2009 legislature will be brutal. So let’s reallocate federal dollars from missile defense to a national study abroad in China program. Let’s take a small part of the mostly wasted $13 billion per year (here) being spent on missile defense and invest it in our next generations. Having many in our next generations know China and speaking Mandarin will contribute more to our national security than the missile defense system. On the value of the missile defense system, I agree with defense analyst and international strategist Tom Barnett: (here and here)

After spending vast sums, America now fields missile defense sites in Alaska and California that even ardent program defenders admit are rudimentary.

If the envisioned program is completed deep into the next decade, missile expert Scott Ritter estimates the total cumulative cost could top a trillion dollars.

In return, we'll own a missile defense network easily overwhelmed by any major attack theoretically launched by Russia or China and one easily fooled by even a minor attack mounted by a North Korean-sized entity.

Of course, none of that would matter whatsoever because America's invulnerable ability to strike back and totally decimate potential attackers would dominate any regime's decision-making.

Such capability would nonetheless be useless in the face of the most likely threat we face: a nuclear device smuggled into the United States and detonated by terrorists.

 

China’s market worth more than $1 billion to Nike

Nike understands globalization. Nike understands the growth and expanding market opportunities in the countries of the so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) plus Turkey. They’re making money there. Lots of it.

 

Note that Oregon’s public education system does not understand globalization. Less than 2% of Oregon’s public K-20 education students study Mandarin. No Oregon K-12 public school students study abroad at public expense. Our education system is not keeping up with market changes.

 

Ben Jacklet’s article “Olympics give Nike’s China sales a huge boost” (here ) in the Oregon Business Magazine says:

 

Nike’s sales in China shot up 53% amid the Olympic hoopla during the fiscal quarter that ended Sept. 30. More importantly, future orders for Nike products in China also increased by 50% as compared to 10% worldwide. Charlie Denson, Nike brand president, told investors the Beijing Olympiad was “our most successful single event ever, on multiple fronts.” CEO Mark Parker was equally bullish about Nike’s prospects in China well beyond the Olympics, as well as in similarly emerging markets in Brazil, India, Turkey and Russia.

More than half of Nike’s revenues come from sales outside of the United States, and China is the company’s fastest-growing and most important foreign market, worth more than $1 billion per year. Nike executives cite success in China as a key element to Nike’s push to grow to $23 billion in sales by 2011.

That may explain the whopping $181 million the company spent on advertising and marketing for the quarter. The spending spree cut into quarterly profits, but Nike’s approach to China always has been closer to a marathon than a sprint. Nike was one of the first multinationals to open factories in China in the early ’80s, and it has been promoting sports and sponsoring athletes in China for more than two decades, beginning with its backing of the Chinese national basketball team in 1980.

That long-term investment is looking smarter than ever these days, as consumer spending in the United States fizzles and China continues its economic ascent.                    

 

Like Nike, Oregon needs to make a long term commitment. We need to teach large numbers of our public students Mandarin and send them to China to study.

 

 

How to best spend $5.4 million in earmarks

Michael Bales’ article “Woodland Park: 102^nd Avenue area gets arty upgrade” in the Oregonian reports (here):

A half-mile of Northeast 102nd Avenue sports a more inviting look.

 Antique-style street lamps, 15-foot-wide sidewalks, bike lanes, crosswalks and trees are among additions from Northeast Wiedler to Glisan streets.

The most striking work, says Dan Layden, project manager for the Portland Office of Transportation, should be finished by month's end. A once-barren corner referred to as the "jug handle" — a semicircular turn  lane from Wiedler onto 102nd — will get tiered landscaping and 49 reddish fiberglass poles, 24 to 35 feet tall, that are designed to sway in the wind.

 

 Residents have lobbied for the project for more than a decade, says Bob Earnest, who heads a Gateway urban renewal committee that advises the Portland Development Commission. Metro designated the area a regional center, says Earnest, who hopes government agencies eventually locate there.

 The project, dedicated Monday at a ceremony in the Fred Meyer parking lot, cost $5.4 million, most from a federal earmark. Still planned but lacking money is similar work from Glisan south to Southeast Washington Street.

The project has been mentioned in Oregonian articles on Sen Coburn holding up the Mt. Hood  Wilderness legislation (here):

Coburn has been the nemesis of new Mount Hood wilderness over the past year, repeatedly defying attempts by Wyden and Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., to push their wilderness legislation through. He contends that the roughly $10 million cost for mapping and surveying is wasteful federal spending.

 The Oklahoma senator takes pride in making light of federal spending in a "pork report" on his Web site. On Friday, two of the eight examples in Coburn's pork report came from Oregon.

One of the examples quoted an Oregonian headline describing "arty upgrades," including new lamps, sidewalks, bike lanes and trees, on Northeast 102nd Avenue in Portland funded with $5.4 million in federal earmarks.

Now, to some $5.4 million is a lot of money. China is rising, perhaps to replace the US as the global superpower within the lifetimes of today’s students. Their economy is estimated to reach the size of the US economy in 2035 and twice our size in 2050. Yet, less than 2% of Oregon’s public school students K-20 study Mandarin, and far, far fewer become fluent or spend time studying in China. The 2007 Oregon legislative session failed to allocate $350,000 to promote Mandarin in the K-12 educational system. For the 2009 session I am proposing they spend $3 million over the biennium to develop Mandarin and study abroad programs (here). With the economy in a dive, this will be difficult if not impossible to pass. More Mandarin for our students should be a strategic high priority. So, who said $5.4 million for artsy transportation upgrades in East Portland was more important than equipping today’s students with survival skills for the 21^st century. Whose earmark is this? Do they understand what’s happening in the 21^st century.

For $5.4 million, Oregon could also send 1,650 high school students (about 5% of a graduating class) to China for one summer month of language study and living immersed with Chinese families. If Oregon had the public, business and civic leadership it now needs, there would be a $50 million, ten year program to send that number of students each summer. It should be a top strategic priority.

Further notes: (1) The Democrats should abolish the use of earmarks. Period. (2) I did take pictures of only the jughandle part of the project, but I do wonder after seeing it, what are they spending all that money on?

 

 

 

Gov. K’s educational priorities and mine

I differ with the Governor on which educational priorities to fund. And I fault him for what he is not saying about the need for world language and study abroad programs. He just missed another opportunity to articulate such a vision.        

Governor Kulongoski spoke Friday (11/14/08) to the Oregon School Boards Association. Betsy Hammond’s Oregonian article “Governor, citing economy, urges delay of new Oregon graduation requirements” (here) says:

Gov. Ted Kulongoski said Friday that he wants to delay Oregon's new graduation requirements, giving a pass to this year's high school freshmen, who are supposed to prove their skills in reading, math, speaking and writing to get a diploma.

The more rigorous requirements were enacted by a unanimous Oregon Board of Education in June after nearly three years of study. Joining 26 other states, the Oregon board said schools need to get all students up to par in so-called essential skills essential before sending them to college and careers.

But Kulongoski, citing the sharp economic downturn, told hundreds of local school board members Friday that he doesn't think he will be able to find millions of dollars to hire more teachers and upgrade schools to get students to higher standards.

First, Governor Kulongoski is right to be cautious about what revenues will be available. The economy is in a dive. Backing off the graduation requirements is not a big deal for me. I’ve wondered why the Governor, and the business community, thought knowledge of algebra and plane geometry was more important than fluency in a second language in today’s global economy. More engineers and scientist yes, but algebra for everyone, really, just why?

Second, I learned from Hammond’s article just how much upgrading Oregon’s graduation requirement will cost, and I have other priorities for those dollars. The Governor has his priorities, shared presumably by many educators and much of the organized business community, and I have mine. This is what Hammond says:

A panel of Oregon educators convened by the state estimated it would cost about $266 million in 2009-11 to equip schools to get all students to meet the new graduation requirements.

The primary costs would be to hire more math, science and reading teachers and to provide more training for teachers already on the job, said Brian Reeder, assistant state superintendent who headed the project. Oregon schools would also need to hire more counselors and provide extra tutoring time -- the equivalent of six weeks of summer school for the one-tenth of students at greatest risk of not graduating -- to get the job done, his panel found.

Understand that I think the global economy is undergoing profound, revolutionary changes. The general process is called “globalization.” Improvements in communication and transportation are bringing peoples all over the world into one competitive economy. The rise of China is just part of the emergence of 2-3 billion more people in the global middle class over the next thirty years. This is the world today’s students will live in. Oregon should respond, I believe, by upgrading its world languages and study abroad programs, with an initial emphasis on Mandarin and China.

So, I would reallocate $3 million (more would be better) of the $266 million, or even of the basic school funding, to develop more Mandarin programs (see my budget proposal here).

For no budget costs in this shrinking revenues environment, the Governor could support my proposed High School Study Abroad Scholarship Program. (here) In doing so he could acknowledge the changing global economy and that he has a vision of how world language and study abroad programs could prepare Oregon students to survive and thrive in the intensely competitive future.

It’s past time he told the Oregon School Board Association what’s really happening globally and what we really need to do. Another missed opportunity.

 

Oregon as a frontier state in globalization

 Let’s think of ourselves as a frontier state in the wild west of globalization. Let’s send our young out into the world as Oregon trailblazers.

 

I am not usually a fan of Rupert Murdock. I do not like the political slant of his newspapers and broadcasting enterprises. But I did find some thoughtful advice in his opening lecture of the Boyer Lectures, the first of five given in Australia, titled “Aussie rules: bring back the pioneer.” The transcript is here and the video is below.

 

He is giving advice to Australians on their future. Two themes are significant and relevant to Oregonian: (1) Bring back your pioneer spirit, and (2) Pay attention to the growing global middle class, especially in China and India. Both are sound advice for us in Oregon.

 

Oregonians have lost touch with their frontier mentality or pioneer spirit. When I talk to legislators or educators about the need to get our young out into the global world, learning new languages and exploring new markets, I get the sense that many think I’m crazy, or, at best, simply impractical. I think most of them have not thought deeply about the world our children will live in, the one in which China’s economy is twice as large as the US economy. But more fundamentally, as Murdoch reminds me, they have probably lost touch with their frontier mentality or pioneer spirit. For them life has become too safe and too comfortable. They have become too complacent. Life for them seems a little to0 predictable and without hazards. I do not think they often try to recall the spirit of the pioneers that settled Oregon, or Australia, nor do they acknowledge the perils of our time.They have forgotten the past and do not think seriously of the future, while the world today is closer to the world of the Oregon pioneers as they summoned the desperate visions and energy to leave the East for the West than to the Ozzie-and-Harriett world of the recent past.

 

Murdoch puts it this way:

Australia will not succeed in the future if it aims to be just a bit better than average. Specifically, I believe that we need to revive the sense of Australia as a frontier country, and to cultivate Australia as a great center of excellence. Unlike our parents and grandparents, this new frontier has little to do with the bush or the outback. Today the frontier that needs sorting is the wider world, and complacency is our chief enemy.

 

The frontier for Oregon’s young is the wider world. We need to send our young Oregon trailblazers out on their 21^st century adventures to learn new languages, explore new markets, and connect back to us in Oregon. Our survival and prosperity depend upon it.

 

Murdoch’s second significant piece of advice is a familiar theme of mine: pay attention to the growing global middle class, especially in China and India: He puts it like this:

In sheer numbers, the emergence of India and China as economic powers and the wealth that they are creating is accompanied by a rise of a new middle class. Over the next 30 years or so, two or three billion people will join this new global middle class. The world has never seen this kind of advance before. These are people who have known deprivation. These are people who are intent on developing their skills, improving their lives and showing the world what they can do. (minute 20:45).

 

And, on learning foreign languages, he says:

Our leading trade partners are the great nations of Asia, not mother England. European languages are generally less functional for our children than Chinese, Japanese, and Indonesian—though I'd put in a special word for Spanish for its utility in Latin America and the United States. (minute 12:55)

 

Governor K's trade mission to China and Japan

Governor Kulongoski is off  Saturday on a trade mission to Japan and China. That’s great. I support the Governor making more trade missions, especially to China. China’s economy is forecast to be as large as the US economy in 2035 and twice as large in 2050. This is his second trade mission to China as Governor. The last was in 2003.

 

Two complaints: (1) I have seen no announcement of the trip, its itinerary, and its members. No information about the trip is on the Governor’s website, or I don’t know how to find it.  My call asking for info almost a week ago was never returned. So I know no more than what is in the Rich Read article below. (2) But I suspect there are no educators or students on the trip, nor are there educational related stops on the itinerary. In which case, Governor Kulongoski still does not understand how important China is to Oregon’s long term future and what changes we need to make our educational system in response. I suspect he is not going to visit any Oregon students studying abroad in China.

 

He may need to get a larger vision of Oregon-China relations that includes many more Oregon students studying Mandarin and studying abroad in China. He could easily get behind my High School Study Abroad Scholarship Program (here). In a tight budget environment, this program would cost no new dollars, and we could have hundreds of Oregon high school students studying in China next year or the year after. He could be visiting potential high school study abroad sites in China, talking with students and looking at their programs. Then he could come back to Oregon, tell our high school students: go to China, learn the language, and live with a Chinese family. Go on an adventure for yourself, for the future of Oregon, and for future the US.

Much of the same goes for Japan.

Here is Rich Read’s Oregonian article of 11/12/08

“Ted Kulongoski hopes to persuade Asian automakers to build in Oregon”

TOYOTA CITY, Japan -- Japan's version of Detroit boasts 10,000 engineers and produces innovative electric cars that Gov. Ted Kulongoski would like to see manufactured in Oregon.

As the governor prepares to depart Saturday for Japan and China with a trade delegation, he dreams of former Freightliner workers manufacturing alternative-energy cars in Portland. At the least, he would like Oregon to become a testing ground for electric cars made by Toyota and Chinese carmaker BYD -- and a launch site for such cars made by Nissan, which leads the green pack.

The trade mission, Kulongoski's sixth as governor, aims not only to pursue green vehicles but also to renew contacts with Asian companies already doing business in Oregon as the state's economy struggles.

In Japan's Motor City, Kulongoski will find a Toyota robot that plays "Over the Rainbow" on a trumpet. He'll see a so-called wearable personal-mobility automobile -- the i-unit -- that crosses a microcar with a vehicular exoskeleton.

Perhaps he has an agreement up his sleeve with one of the three automakers he'll visit during the weeklong trip. But Toyota Motor Corp. managers said during an interview in Tokyo that while testing could be possible in Oregon, a manufacturing plant is highly unlikely given the global economic crisis.

"We have no intention of building a new plant anywhere," said Akihiko Nakaoka, project manager in overseas department No. 1 of Toyota's global external affairs division.

In Japan's Motor City, Kulo
"The situation is not good timing," said Shunji Yoshida, project general manager of the same department.

The managers spoke last week after Toyota -- battered by the rising yen and the declining U.S. market -- predicted that fiscal 2009 sales would fall 8 percent from the year before to 8.2 million vehicles. Toyota is doing far better than General Motors and other U.S. automakers, but an air of apprehension pervades Japan's car capital.

Kulongoski, whose administration boosts renewable energy on several fronts, can pitch Oregon as the No. 1 hybrid-car state per capita and Portland as the U.S. Prius sales capital.

He'll describe his proposals to shift state tax credits from hybrids to new plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles, said Jillian Schoene, a Kulongoski spokeswoman who will join the trip. He'll probably note that Toyota U.S.A. chose Portland in September for an internationally billed "sustainable mobility seminar." He'll describe new Oregon plug-in stations that will enable electrics to drive from the coast to Idaho or from Washington to California.

Toyota managers already know Oregon because they ship hundreds of thousands of vehicles to the Port of Portland each year. Port officials would also like Nissan to ship through Portland, the West Coast's busiest auto-import hub.

Other states are courting Nissan and its electric-vehicle suppliers for manufacturing. Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm met recently with executives of Automotive Energy Supply Corp., Nissan's battery supplier for all-electric cars.

"I need a manufacturing plant and a research-and-development facility in the United States because it's the biggest market," said Masahiko Otsuka, Automotive Energy Supply president. But a plant expansion in Japan and factory construction in Europe will likely come first, Otsuka said.

Officials are bracing for job losses in Toyota City, population 420,000, where almost half the work force makes cars. Toyota managers plan to cut temporary workers, scale back production and trim costs.

"We are quite worried about the future," said Toshifumi Kuroyanagi, the city's public-affairs director.

But just as Toyota, the company, forges ahead with electric vehicles, Toyota the city strives to go green. Mayor Kohei Suzuki has visited Portland, where he took interest in light rail, the bus system, eco-friendly buildings and farmers markets.

Like Detroit, its sister city, Toyota City revolves around autos. Car ownership is higher here than in other Japanese cities. About 95 percent of as many as 20,000 cars parked in company lots are Toyotas -- although Kuroyanagi sheepishly admits to driving an Alfa Romeo.

"It breaks down a lot," he hastens to add, noting that Mayor Suzuki drives a Toyota.

Toyota City gives cash subsidies to Prius buyers. Officials aim by 2025 to double the number of people using public transportation.

Patrick Reiten, who will accompany Kulongoski on his trip with other business leaders, faces renewable-energy mandates as president of Pacific Power. Reiten, chairman of the governor's Transportation Vision Committee, believes that someday Portland workers could complete assembly of Asian-brand cars.

Reiten especially looks forward to visiting China's BYD, a cell-phone company pioneering electric cars. Warren Buffett's MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., which owns Pacific Power through PacifiCorp, recently took a stake in BYD.

"They have charging-station technology that looks fairly attractive to us," Reiten said. Pacific Power is beginning to install electric-vehicle charging equipment for companies and the Port of Portland.

BYD has already chosen the Port of Long Beach as its primary U.S. car-import hub, Reiten said.

"But there is potential for a secondary import hub in Portland," he said, "as well as the hope that Portland might serve as a test market for plug-in electric hybrid vehicles."