Global Strategies

China, India & Brazil Driving the Global Economy

Recall, please, that this session of the Oregon legislature declined to expand Mandarin programs in Oregon’s public schools and refused to create the Go Global High School Study Abroad Program. Both would have prepared our next generations to sell our good and services in emerging markets.

Today (6/25/09) the NY Times reports in an article “Emerging Countries May Also Be Driving the Global Economy” by Nelson D. Schwartz and Matthew Saltmarsh that (here):

Despite fears just months ago that they would be among the biggest victims of the financial crisis, emerging giants like China, India and Brazil are set to rebound strongly next year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted Wednesday — as Europe, the United States and Japan lag.

And:

According to the O.E.C.D.’s semi-annual report, China could grow 7.7 percent this year and 9.3 percent next year, faster than previous estimates. India could grow 5.9 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year, and Brazil’s economy, after slowing down, will reverse this year and expand 4 percent next year.

The O.E.C.D. predicted the United States economy would shrink by 2.8 percent this year and grow by 0.9 percent next year, a bit better than the flat performance the organization estimated in March.

By contrast, the Japanese economy is expected to shrink 6.8 percent this year while Europe should contract 4.8 percent in 2009, with both regions hit harder than in earlier O.E.C.D. forecasts.

Let's keep an eye on where our economic opportunities are and act accordingly.

Spin won't help. "The underlying fundamentals are toxic."

I can always turn to John Robb’s blog “Global Guerrillas” for an assumption-shattering, darker view of world affairs. Just in case you thought we were going to get out of the economic mess we in, consider his latest post (6/24/09) “Spin Economics.” (here)

The underlying fundamentals are toxic:  US gross debt as a percentage of GDP (currently at 375%) is still climbing, housing prices are still falling (wealth destruction as far as the eye can see), un/underemployment is still rising (an inability to service debt), the financial industry is back to its old tricks (bonuses are shooting through the roof again, etc.), China is still manipulating its currency (dashing prospects of future jobs), commodities (higher costs for daily life) are shooting up again, etc.   Worse, what action has been taken is largely short term masking of symptoms and not a cure.  Our government "brain-trust" is using all of its financial powder on deprecated 20th Century economic measures to prop up the industries that got us into this crisis: like the greasing of palms in the bloated construction industry (what relation that industry has to our future prosperity is a big mystery) and the flooding of a failing oligopoly (the financial industry) with free money.  

Really, now tell me the bad news.

In short, the economic decline we just experienced is being primed to continue (perhaps with greater force), when the spin eventually fails to convince.  Without a means to rectify our course except for spin economics, the trend towards a post-Westphalian century replete with neo-feudalism and global guerrillas is on an inexorable march

Oregonian: "Don't ram out-of-control acquisition programs down the throat of the Pentagon. "

I’ve said it before (here), and I’ll say it again:” The F-22 program is not a jobs program.” Too many congressmen, unfortunately, think otherwise. They are increasing the budget for F-22’s beyond what the Pentagon requested. Yes, crazy. The Oregonian gets it right (here):

The wrangle in the House of Representatives recently isn't only about buying 12 more F-22 fighter jets: It's about whether Congress will permit the president to cut unnecessary defense programs that run absurdly over budget.

President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates offered a responsible plan to bring the F-22 program to a close, capping the number built at 187, or just four more than are planned.

The plane, which has never been used in a combat role and hasn't been deployed in Iraq or Afghanistan, has become a poster child for cost overruns. The price of each of the last four planes is pegged by the Air Force at about $196 million, although the true cost is closer to $350 million, according to independent analysts such as Winslow Wheeler, a director at the Center for Defense Information. (In 1999, advocates cited a "sticker price" of less than $85 million per plane.)

Yet, over the objections of House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo., the committee voted 31-30 this month to expand the program. It would do so over the objections of the Pentagon itself and, further, would take the initial money for additional production from a separate program to clean up nuclear sites.

This craziness comes to you courtesy of a system in which contractors such as Lockheed-Martin scatter production jobs around the country, employing workers in enough congressional districts to ensure widespread support of arms-building programs, no matter how inefficient or unnecessary they are.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., is proposing an amendment that would restore the F-22 program to original funding levels proposed by the Pentagon. He sees it as a first -- and therefore, critically important -- test of whether Congress will let the administration reshape the defense budget.

The House should embrace the Frank amendment. If this president and this secretary of defense aren't allowed to end a program as wasteful as the F-22, then the contractors are running the national defense program, to the detriment of national military and economic policy.

Although some in Congress attempt to lecture the Pentagon on the strategic importance of the F-22, the fact is they are most interested in protecting jobs in their districts. Yet the money spent on the F-22 would be better spent on the Joint Strike Fighter, the F-35, which is also built by Lockheed-Martin and also has a broad constituency around the country. (It has a broad constituency around the world, actually, with other allies participating in production and as potential customers.)

If the Democrats who control the House of Representatives want to help their president succeed and, coincidentally, do the responsible thing for the country, they should make sure that a few self-interested members don't ram out-of-control acquisition programs down the throat of the Pentagon.

The Oregonian is calling this one right!

Democrats, beware! Don't let this spending get out of control!

 

Oregon's Gas Tax Failure Supports Iranian Tyrants

With oil prices creeping up, more money will be flowing to petrostates around the world. This is not good. Many are hostile to our interests, or even to the interests of their own people. Tom Friedman’s op-ed today (6/24/09) “The Green Revolution(s)” focuses on just one: Iran (here):

There has been a lot of worthless chatter about what President Barack Obama should say about Iran’s incipient “Green Revolution.” Sorry, but Iranian reformers don’t need our praise. They need the one thing we could do, without firing a shot, that would truly weaken the Iranian theocrats and force them to unshackle their people. What’s that? End our addiction to the oil that funds Iran’s Islamic dictatorship. Launching a real Green Revolution in America would be the best way to support the “Green Revolution” in Iran.

Oil is the magic potion that enables Iran’s turbaned shahs — “Shah Khamenei” and “Shah Ahmadinejad” — to snub their noses at the world and at many of their own people as well. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad behaves like someone who was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple. By coincidence, he’s been president of Iran during a period of record high oil prices. So, although he presides over an economy that makes nothing the world wants, he can lecture us about how the West is in decline and the Holocaust was a “myth.” Trust me, at $25 a barrel, he won’t be declaring that the Holocaust was a myth anymore.

The Obama team wants to pursue talks with Iran over its nuclear program, no matter who wins there. Fine. But the issue is not talk or no talk. The issue is leverage or no leverage. I love talking to people — especially in the Middle East — on one condition: that we have the leverage. As long as oil prices are high, Iran will have too much leverage and will be able to resist concessions on its nuclear program. With oil at $70 a barrel, our economic sanctions on Iran are an annoyance; at $25, they really hurt.

In Oregon, our legislative session is about to close down. No substantial, revenue neutral gas tax was even proposed. No hearings. Nothing. Just a small gas tax raise for infrastructure. Just shame.

Friedman has been a long supporter of a gas tax. Longer than me. He’s right to put it out there again:

Mr. Obama has already started some excellent energy-saving initiatives. But we need more. Imposing an immediate “Freedom Tax” of $1 a gallon on gasoline — with rebates to the poor and elderly — would be a triple positive: It would stimulate more investment in renewable energy now; it would stimulate more consumer demand for the energy-efficient vehicles that the reborn General Motors and Chrysler are supposed to make; and, it would reduce our oil imports in a way that would surely affect the global price and weaken every petro-dictator.

 

Iranian Solidarity Vigil - Photos

Over 200 persons attended the Iranian Solidarity Vigil at Portland State University on 6/19/09: Flowers, candles, moments of silence.

     

Taking the Go Global High School Study Abroad Program national

I am now emailing versions of the following to national organization, to key members of Congress, and to key congressional staff:

NY Times columnist Nicholas Kristof recently wrote “I truly believe that one of the best ways to get a more sensible foreign policy is to get more Americans who have spent time abroad — especially embedded at the grassroots.” A simple changes in educational funding in the US could make that happen by sending many, many more high school students to study abroad, - and at no additional cost to state, local or national governments.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace forecasts that China’s economy will be twice as large as the US economy in 2050. Other forecasters estimate that 80% of global economic growth in the next few decades will be in emerging global markets (including China). As high strategic priority for our economic development, we should send many more students to study abroad in these markets. We could send tens of thousand of high school students into these markets at no additional costs.

President Obama’s Cairo speech called for expanding exchange programs and for “encouraging more Americans to study in Muslim communities.” The US could have thousands more high school students studying in Muslim countries at no additional costs.

Can you help? I am now looking for other states and school districts interested in pursuing the Go Global study abroad concept described below. I am trying to find states, school districts, and/or individuals within either that might be interested in developing such Go Global programs. At the national level, I am looking for congressional and administration leaders willing to create incentives for state and local school districts to develop such programs. Any thoughts, suggestions, or advice is welcome.

The Go Global high school study abroad concept is simple: permit local school districts to pay for high school students to study abroad through study abroad organizations like AFS, ASSE and CIEE (or others listed with the Council on Standards for International Educational Travel). And permit the school districts, when funded by the state, to receive the same state funding whether the student is in-district or studying abroad. And, if such public funding is not sufficient to cover the study abroad program costs, permit the student, parents or anyone else to pay the additional costs.

Many academic high school year abroad programs cost less than the per pupil annual expenditures in many states. Some states could save public funds by sending students to study abroad.

State per pupil expenditures for K-12 in FY 2006 ranged from a high of $14,954 in New Jersey to a low of $5,464 in Utah. Rounding out the highest spending ten states are New York, $14,615; District of Columbia, $13,752; Connecticut, $13,072; Vermont, $12,805; Rhode Island, $12,609; Massachusetts, $12,564; Alaska, $11,476; Wyoming, $11,437; and  Maryland, $10,909.

Please note, as examples, the academic year abroad fees for the following two high school study abroad providers. Such fees typically cover tuition (if any) at a foreign high school, room and board with a host family, round-trip international travel from a major US city, and medical insurance. Other services are often covered.

ASSE (American Scandinavian Student Exchange) provides the following academic-year study abroad programs: Mexico, $4,900;  Finland, $7,550; Romania, $7,550; French Canada, $5,400;Germany, $7,550; Serbia, $7,550; Taiwan, $6,750; Holland, $7,550; Slovakia, $7,550; Hong Kong, $7,500; Italy, $7,550; Spain, $7,550; Mongolia, $7,500; Lithuania, $7,550; Sweden, $7,550; Vietnam, $7,500; Norway, $7,550; Switzerland, $7,550; Czech Republic, $7,550; Poland, $7,550; Turkey, $7,550; Denmark, $7,550; Portugal, $7,550; Ukraine, $7,550; Estonia, $7,550; and France, $8,650.

AFS high school study abroad academic year offerings as of 2/13/09: Chile, $8,900; Costa Rica, $8,900; Czech Republic, $8,900; Dominican Republic, $8,900; Ecuador, $8,900; Egypt, $8,900; Honduras, $8,900; Hungary, $8,900; Latvia, $8,900; Turkey, $8,900; Panama, $8,900; Peru, $8,900; Paraguay, $8,900; Argentina, $9,900; Austria, $9,900; Belgium Flanders, $9,900; Brazil, $9,900; China, $9,900; Denmark, $9,900;  Finland, $9,900; Germany, $9,900; Iceland, $9,900; India, $9,900; Indonesia, $9,900; Malaysia, $9,900; Netherlands, $9,900; Portugal, $9,900; Russia, $9,900; South Africa, $9,900; Sweden, $9,900; Thailand, $9,900; Belgium French, $10,900; France, $10,900; Ghana, $10,900; Italy, $10,900; New Zealand, $10,900; and Spain, $10,900.

These study abroad fees are less than the per pupil expenditures in the high expenditure states.

Authorizing laws and an administrative structure to award such study abroad grants are needed to shift funds from in-district to study abroad grants. No additional funds are required. In Oregon, where I live, we developed Oregon HB 2719 as the authorizing law and as a means to begin development of such an administrative structure. It has now died in a legislative committee. Given the uniqueness of educational funding in each state, I do not think that Oregon’s HB 2719 can just be transferred to another state. The general concepts can be similar, but each state needs to draft its own legislation.

Respectfully – Dave Porter

Portland, Oregon

PS:

(a)    The Nicholas Kristof article “My ‘15 Travel Tips’ Column” is here.

(b)   The initial concepts for the Oregon High School Study Abroad program are here.

(c)    Text of the Oregon proposed legislation, HB 2719, is here.

(d)   The source of the data on state per pupil educational expenditures is from the National Center for Educational Statistics is here.  See Table 3. The cost figures cited “include instruction, instruction-related, support services, and other elementary/secondary current expenditures, but exclude expenditures on capital outlay, other programs, and interest on long-term debt.”

(e)    For a sample of my arguments for such a program see my testimony on HB 2719 before the Oregon House Education Committee here.

Utah to add 21 foreign language immersion programs next year

Email sent to all 90 Oregon legislators on 6/15/09:

Utah is moving ahead with foreign language immersion programs. I know proposals in the current Oregon legislative session to expand Mandarin programs and to create a Go Global High School Study Abroad Program for Oregon students are, unfortunately, dead in committee. But other states are moving ahead. Here is a recent article from the Salt Lake Tribune (in full) (here):

Gov. Jon Huntsman's appointment as ambassador to China isn't Utah's only Far East bragging right.

We have the nation's highest percentage of public-school students studying Mandarin, mostly at the high-school level. And now Mandarin is trickling into elementary schools, securing Utah's leadership role and signaling a renewed focus on bilingual education, say state education officials.

"Dual immersion" programs in Mandarin, French and Spanish are coming to 21 elementary schools next year. As the name implies, students at those schools will spend half of every school day immersed in a world language, learning math, science and social studies. Reading and language arts are taught in English.

It's a program that "teaches the regular, core curriculum through the medium of a second language," said Gregg Roberts, state world-language specialist.

Students start young, in the first grade, which 40 years of research shows is the best way to gain proficiency in any language.

"It also happens to be the least expensive," said Roberts, noting the only costs associated with the program are for supplies and up-front teacher training.

By the sixth grade, students will be "bilingual, biliterate and bicultural," said Roberts.

Learning a second language is no longer something people do for pleasure or travel. It's a must for those hoping to compete in the global marketplace, said Sen. Howard Stephenson, R-Draper, who believes Utah's predominance in Mandarin will bring new jobs and business opportunities to the state.

The Draper Republican carried legislation last year to expand dual-immersion offerings.

This year, about 3,500 Utah students were learning Mandarin, said Stephenson. By next year, that number will reach 6,000.

French and Spanish are equally popular and important, said Roberts.

There are 55 countries on five continents where French is used regularly for business, including Canada. And Spanish programs have the added benefit of bringing native Spanish and English speakers together to bridge cultures and learning styles, said Roberts.

America is behind the rest of the world when it comes to bilingualism, with only 9 percent of the population reporting fluency in a second language, compared with 52 percent of Europeans, according to a research review by University of Wisconsin professor Francois Victor Tochon.

English is spoken by about 15 percent of the world's population, but its "postulated ubiquity" is a "myth," writes Tochon. "On average, bilinguals earn more in the United States and, more recently, in the United Kingdom."

There are also cognitive and academic benefits.

"It's just amazing. My daughter has learned math in Spanish," said Nate Alder, president of the Utah State Bar and member of the school community council at William Penn Elementary in Millcreek Township.

William Penn and other schools in Granite School District were dual-immersion pilot sites.

Alder said initially, some parents were nervous about their kids falling behind in reading and math. But two years of test scores show students in the program are on par or a few points ahead of their peers.

Learning a second language keeps gifted learners engaged and sparks a fire in others, believes Alder, who says before the program his 7-year-old daughter was a reluctant reader. "Now she reads both English and Spanish books for pleasure. Spanish is her thing."

Doing dual immersion right takes trained teachers and a watchful eye over the curriculum to ensure that once students achieve proficiency, they don't lose ground.

After elementary school, students are encouraged to continue language instruction and take the AP exam in the ninth grade, said Roberts. Time in high school can be used to begin a third language.

Nationwide, there's a shortage of qualified teachers. But Roberts said that hasn't been a problem in Utah, home to Brigham Young University, a major American center for language study.

Utah will accept only native speakers or teachers tested as highly fluent, said Roberts. This year, five teachers were imported from mainland China. Next year, 22 are expected to teach in the Beehive State.

The program is optional; schools that offer it also offer traditional classes, said Roberts. "This is about parent choice."

Most of the slots for next year are full. But schools have waiting lists; the Mandarin program at Wasatch Elementary in Provo had so many applicants, the principal opened a second class.

Four elementary schools in the Granite School District are still accepting applications: Morningside, Diamond Ridge, Calvin Smith and Spring Lane.

Thank you for your attention.

Respectfully –

Dave Porter

PS: Links

(1)   Another article titled  “Provo school ready for Chinese immersion” in the Daily Herald has more details here.

(2) A slide show on the development of Mandarin programs in Minnesota and Utah is here.

(3) Access to Utah’s 2008 Governor’s Language Summit is here..

 

 

 

Time to Wear Green for the Iranian People

Iranian presidental candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, reportedly, has called for marches and mass demonstrations in Iran on Monday, June 15th, and a general strike on Tuesday, June 16^th, in protest over the fraudulent elections results in Iran (here). I with him in spirit and wish I could be there.

It is time to wear green in support of the Iranian people struggling for fair elections.

I do not think our US government should take any action now. I’ve been happy with the tone of our public comments so far.

But I do think it is time for the American public to show its support for the people in Iran struggling for free and fair elections. I am going to wear green for the next days as events play out. I will go to the store and get a bit of green ribbon and wear it pinned on my clothes. I will look for our local peace and human rights groups to call for demonstrations. I will attend if I can.  

I do not think that these fraudulent election results should be used by Israel or any other country to justify preemptive air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. That would be crazy!

I urge others to wear green as well!

"Beijing Bikinis Update China's Culture"

Just another indication of how much China is changing.

From the Huffington Post via Reuters (here):

Bikinis are becoming accepted as bathing wear in Beijing. A recent swimsuit contest in the Asian city showcased Chinese designers and their creations, with the winning suit made from traditional fishing prints. China is long-known for forbidding any public displays of sexuality, so the swimwear is one step away from the country's conservatism.

Video begins with brief commercial

"The Opportunity Costs of the War in Iraq" - Sanger

NY Times reported David Sanger spoke to a World Affairs Council audience of one hundred last night (6/12/09) about his book “The Inheritance: the World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power.” (here)

Sanger labels the Iraq War “the great distraction.” His book, then, is not about Iraq, but about “the opportunity costs” of that war, about the much greater costs to us of the other, greater threats we ignored and the greater opportunities elsewhere we failed to exploit.

(Note here: one of the themes of this blog is that the US and Oregon are failing to exploit the opportunities we have now with China and that China is of much more long term strategic importance to the US than some of the efforts and expenses we continue to make elsewhere. So, to a certain extent, I see the US as still “distracted.” )

He spoke mostly about three of the greater threats we ignored or confronted with less than full attention and effort because of our focus in Iraq: Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan/Pakistan.

Gary J. Bass’ review of “The Inheritance” in the NY Times put it this way (here):

The Iraq war hobbled America’s ability to threaten North Korea and Iran credibly. Mr. Sanger points out that in 2003, as North Korea kicked out international weapons inspectors and raced to complete the fuel for perhaps six nuclear weapons, the Bush administration was gunning to invade nuclear-free Iraq.

“Had a few other things on our mind,” said a senior Bush administration official, when Mr. Sanger reminded him that the North Korean crisis was unfolding at the same time.

Most directly, Mr. Sanger bats back at the argument made forcefully to him in 2007 by Stephen J. Hadley, Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, that the administration never shortchanged Afghanistan because of Iraq. Mr. Sanger writes, “Time and again, Afghanistan — the country where the 9/11 plot was hatched — was overshadowed by the war in Iraq.”

When Gen. Dan K. McNeill, commanding NATO forces in Afghanistan, called the White House in the winter of 2008 to ask for about 37,000 more American troops, he was rebuffed. According to Mr. Sanger, crucial Special Forces units, seasoned combat troops and C.I.A. personnel were shuffled over to Iraq, taking pressure off Al Qaeda and the Taliban. New Predator drones were sent to Iraq, not Afghanistan.

“We’re simply in a world of limited resources, and those resources are in Iraq,” a senior administration official told Mr. Sanger. “Anyone who tells you differently is blowing smoke.”

Finally, here is David Sanger talking himself about his book: