I agree with much of Robert Kaplan’s NY Times op-ed “Beijing’s
Afghan Gamble” (here) but wonder why he does not call for Chinese troops to assist in
the counterinsurgency fight in Afghanistan. He does write of “combining forces,”
but, as I interpret that, meaning more combining of US soldiers and Chinese
investments, not a combining of troops.
I also don’t think Kaplan wrote the op-ed headline. China’s not gambling. China, he argues, can find its advantages whether the US plunges ahead with more troops or withdraws. And for the US, as he calls it, the Afghan conflict is a probably lose-lose dilemma. Either, in withdrawing, we give a “momentous moral victory” to radical Muslims or we struggle on there aiding others more than ourselves, or, as he puts, it behaving “exactly how an empire declines, by allowing others to take advantage of its own exertions.”
So why not bring China into the COIN fight? I’ve argue previously (here, for example) that China should have many troops in Afghanistan.
Kaplan writes:
In Afghanistan, American and Chinese interests converge. By exploiting Afghanistan’s metal and mineral reserves, China can provide thousands of Afghans with jobs, thus generating tax revenues to help stabilize a tottering Kabul government. Just as America has a vision of a modestly stable Afghanistan that will no longer be a haven for extremists, China has a vision of Afghanistan as a secure conduit for roads and energy pipelines that will bring natural resources from the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. So if America defeats Al Qaeda and the irreconcilable elements of the Taliban, China’s geopolitical position will be enhanced.
This is not a paradox, since China need not be our future adversary. Indeed, combining forces with China in Afghanistan might even improve the relationship between Washington and Beijing. The problem is that while America is sacrificing its blood and treasure, the Chinese will reap the benefits. The whole direction of America’s military and diplomatic effort is toward an exit strategy, whereas the Chinese hope to stay and profit.
I’m all for China making investments in Afghanistan. That’s exactly what
Afghanistan needs to develop, more foreign investment. But China should do its
share of the COIN fighting, too. How to get them to do that remains the big
issue. Without significant Chinese troops, I’m generally for limiting the
number of US troops in Afghanistan. If the US holds back, there is some
incentive for China to ante up troops. If we keep sending more US troops, in an
overly American-centric effort, China has no incentive to send any. We are
doing it for them.
This is an excellent posting, although I am a tad late in respomse. Right now July 2010 .... form what I gather Chian already has copper mining contract's locked in, and railway construction plan's to go only from those mining operation's they will have in Afghanistan to China, again .... America get's taken basically for what we are .... "The World's Biggest Sucker's". :)
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In Afghanistan, American and Chinese interests converge. By exploiting Afghanistan’s metal and mineral reserves, China can provide thousands of Afghans with jobs, thus generating tax revenues to help stabilize a tottering Kabul government
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a secure conduit for roads and energy pipelines that will bring natural resources from the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. So if America defeats Al Qaeda and the irreconcilable elements of the Taliban, China’s geopolitical position will be enhanced.
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I agree with much of Robert Kaplan’s NY Times op-ed “Beijing’s Afghan Gamble” (here) but wonder Kaplan why he does not call for Chinese troops to assist in the counterin
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from the Indian Ocean and elsewhere. So if America defeats Al Qaeda and the irreconcilable elements of the Taliban, China’s geopolitical position will be enhanced.
Posted by: pandora | May 03, 2011 at 02:40 AM
So why not bring China into the COIN fight? I’ve argue previously (here, for example) that China should have many troops in Afghanistan.
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