Global Strategies

News video: China's economy to be larger than US economy in 2016

Although this news video is about a year old, it does forecast that China's economy will surpass the US economy in size in 2016.

If only our educators would respond thoughtfully to this trend.

Video: "Can't Help But Love" - Will Pan and Xian Zi

Will Pan was born and spent his early years in West Virginia. See here for more on him.

Prestowitz on the "free trade charade" and solar panels

An excerpt from Clyde Prestowitz’ blog post “It’s too late to penalized China for acting like China” (here):

….. The answer is that U.S. international economic policy is based on what we might call the free trade charade. It assumes that all U.S. trading partners in the World Trade Organization are committed to private enterprise driven laissez faire capitalism and comparative advantage driven free trade. Under this assumption no special subsidies and protections are supposed and the government waits for someone to complain before collecting any data or evaluating any impact on U.S. industry.

Once those investigations start, they take time during which the subsidized industry actually has an incentive to ramp up production and exports in order to destroy as many competitors as possible before any counter action can be taken. And the time can be prolonged because the U.S. subsidiaries of the Chinese producers, being legally U.S. citizens, are granted the privilege of contesting the findings and of arguing that no damage is done to the U.S. economy because they are creating longshoreman and trucking jobs to support the imports. So the fox in the hen house gets to argue, as he wipes blood from his lips, that he's just trying to help the hens.

The root of the trouble here is that the fundamental assumption of private enterprise driven free markets and comparative advantage-driven free trade is wrong. When governments have five-year plans that target certain industries for development aided by a plethora of incentives, the assumptions of free trade are out the window. This is even more true when those governments have powerful bureaucracies with broad discretionary powers to administer "guidance." It is even more true when the governments are authoritarian, and it is even more true when state owned enterprises are involved. When this combination of forces is present, you can be sure that the outcome is not going to be determined by unfettered market forces. So we shouldn't act like we think it will be…..

“South Korea to digitize all textbooks by 2015"

South Korean students: “Not only are they the most computer-literate students in the world, but according to a recent OECD report, they are also the most amenable to computer-based learning"

From last summer’s Extreme Tech article “South Korea to digitize all textbooks by 2015, provide tablets for school kids” by Sebastian Anthony (here):

South Korea’s Education Ministry has announced plans to trash the textbook tomes that weigh down the bags of students and replace them with digitized versions. Primary schools will be first, with their educational materials digitized by 2014, followed by secondary and high schools in 2015. The scheme, dubbed “Smart Education”, will allow students to read their materials on a variety of electronic devices, including smartphones, tablets, PCs, and internet-connected smart TVs. There’s no mention, however, of whether the project will also be rolled out to the students with the largest textbooks: undergraduates.

Some 2.2 trillion yon ($2 billion) will be spent on the project. The digitizing of educational materials will obviously consume some of that funding, but most of the money will probably be spent on the infrastructure for distributing the materials — i.e. tablets and smartphones for students. The South Korean government hasn’t revealed whether it will use a commodity tablet like the homegrown Samsung Galaxy Tab, or create a new device specifically for educational purposes. Given the planned cross-platform interoperability, though, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some kind of HTML5ish solution — and if that’s the case, then students will be able to use whatever tablet they like.

To back up this complete overhaul of the system the Education Ministry gave us some interesting (but rather obvious?) facts about Korean students. Not only are they the most computer-literate students in the world, but according to a recent OECD report, they are also the most amenable to computer-based learning. “That’s why Korean students, who are already fully prepared for digital society, need a paradigm shift in education,” said an official from the Ministry……

Suzhou, China

China’s twenty-first largest city, according to Wikipedia (here), is Suzhou, with 4.074 million people. For comparison, the largest US City, New York, has 8 million people. Los Angeles, second in the US, has 3.7 million, Chicago, in third, has 2.6 million, and Portland at 29^th has 583,776.

From wikipedia (here):

Suzhou, previously transliterated as Su-chou, Suchow, and Soochow, is a major city located in the southeast of Jiangsu Province in Eastern China, located adjacent to Shanghai Municipality. The city is situated on the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and on the shores of Taihu Lake and is a part of the Yangtze River Delta region. Administratively, Suzhou is a prefecture-level city with an urban population of over 4 million expanding to over 10 million in the administrative area.

Originally founded in 514 BCE, Suzhou has over 2,500 years of rich history, and relics of the past are abundant to this day. The city's canals, stone bridges, pagodas, and meticulously designed gardens have contributed to its status as one of the top tourist attractions in China. Since the Song Dynasty (960-1279), it has also been an important centre for China's silk industry. The classical gardens in Suzhou were added to the list of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites in 1997 and 2000. Suzhou is often dubbed the "Venice of the East" or "Venice of China.”.....

Suzhou is one of  Portland’s Sister Cities (here).

High School year in Mexico for $5,000, less than PPS’ costs of $11,830 per student

Oregon students could be spending a high school year abroad in either Mexico or French Canada next year (2012-13) for less costs than in their home Oregon school districts. Put another way, Oregon school districts could be saving money by sending some students abroad (those for whom a year abroad is appropriate and who want to go). The students, of course, would be gaining foreign language skills and international experiences of high value in the global economy.

The international study abroad organization ASSE (American Scandinavian Student Exchange, here) offered a 2012-13 high school year in Mexico for $4,425 plus airfare (so, being generous, add $575 for round-trip airfare, to make an even $5,000) and a 2012-13 high school year in French Canada for $5,685 plus airfare (so, being generous, add $515 for round-trip airfare, to make an even $6,200). ASSE’s fees are not yet out for 2013-14 school year.

Compare the study abroad figures of $5,000 (Mexico) and $6,200 (French Canada) with current school district costs. For examples, current estimates of 2012-13 State School Fund (here, of “Total Formula Revenue per Extended ADMw”) allocate $6,261 per student per year for Portland Public Schools and $6,196 per student per year for the David Douglas School District (whose current bond levy proposal I opposed for lack of a high school study abroad program, here).  Both school districts receive and spend local, grant, and federal revenues in addition to State School Funds. For examples, in 2010-11, Portland Public Schools had operating expenditures of $11,830 per student and David Douglas had operating expenditures of $9,516 per student. Both figures are well over the $5,000-6,200 study abroad fees.

It is not the costs that prevent school districts from paying for high school years abroad. They could save money by sending some students to study abroad for high school.

Video: "Peace Song" - Official theme song of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit

“Peace Song,” apparently, is the official theme song of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. I didn’t know such conferences ever had official theme songs.

President Obama attended the conference this week (here).

The singer is Park Jung Hyun (also known as Lena Park) and the girl in the video is 13 year-old actress Jin Ji Hee.

Achievement compacts may hinder immersion and ELL programs

Regarding the third grade reading proficiency test component of proposed Oregon achievement compacts:  “In a district where we have a large population of ELL students and we have committed to the strategy of literacy in their primary language, it constrains a little bit the models and approaches we use if we only have a measure at third grade and then not for a long time.” - Dr. Consuelo Yvonne Curtis, Superintendent of the Forest Grove School District

The Oregon Education Investment Board met Tuesday, 3/27/12, and approved the general form of proposed achievement compacts with K-12 school districts and other components of the education system. With its focus on the “40-40-20” goal and graduation rates at various educational levels, it is what passes for education reform in Oregon. It’s not, and in some ways, as the video above helps illustrate, the achievement compacts tend to strengthen the status quo. In a global era of rapidly expanding economies abroad, Oregon should, like Utah, be strengthening the foreign language skills of its students through more foreign language immersion programs. Such students, those currently in foreign language immersion programs and those to come, like the English Language Learners described in the video, do not currently fit within the OEIB achievement compact model. The third grade reading test if only in English is not appropriate.

I am not sure but think the speaker on the video is Dr. Consuelo Yvonne Curtis, Superintendent of the Forest Grove School District and member of the OEIB.

At OEIB meeting, OEA opposes "transforming" education in Oregon

“We didn’t hear that people weren’t satisfied with their schools and what they were trying to do. They were not satisfied with the funding.” Hanna Vaandering of the Oregon Education Association

 The Oregon Education Investment Board met yesterday, 3/27/12, in Salem. The Oregonian article “Oregon’s new education board approves achievement gauges for every level of school” by Bill Graves reported on the meeting. There was a controversy over whether a role of the OEIB and its achievement compacts is to “transform” education in Oregon. As Graves’ article reported (here)

Ron Saxton, a board member, former Portland school board chair and executive vice president of Jeld-Wen in Klamath Falls, opposed revisions he said were watering down the board's reform vision.

Instead of calling for a transformation of the Oregon education system, he said, the board was proposing to urge every one to work harder in the status quo.

"This is not what I signed up to help you do," said the former Republican nominee for governor.

Johanna Vaandering, a board member and vice president of the Oregon Education Association, said language in the board's statement calling for transformation and improving learning outcomes was like taking a stick to educators.

"This is about collaboration," she said.

Kitzhaber said Oregon schools need more funding, but they also need to be transformed.

"I don't see the stick," he said. "Collaboration and transformation are not mutually exclusive. They go hand in hand."

The statement was revised to say educators are "expected to collaborate" to adopt "transformational practices."

The video above presents the statement of Vaandering (representing the OEA) defending the status quo and opposing transforming education in Oregon. No wonder Oregon lacks foreign language immersion programs, high school study abroad programs, and accessible online education programs. OEA just wants more money for the status quo. Vaandering is obviously not listening to me!

Vote "No" on David Douglas School Bond Levy

(photo of David Douglas School Board as of June, 2011)

The David Douglas School Board has placed a $49.5 million bond measure on the May 15^th ballot. I urge voters to vote “No.”

The David Douglas School District explains their levy (here):

Since 2008-09, the David Douglas School District has reduced its operating budget by nearly $14 million, or 13 percent. In addition to the elimination of more than 100 positions, the District has deferred most major facility repair, renovation and replacement projects, as well as the purchase of new textbooks and classroom technology.

This bond measure would allow the District to pay for:

• Building maintenance and repairs, including replacing old plumbing, roofs, HVAC systems, flooring that contains asbestos tiles, windows, siding and making energy efficiency improvements.

• Safety and security upgrades including seismic retrofits and fire alarm and security systems.

• New textbook adoptions and classroom technology.

• Replacing aging modular classrooms, making ADA improvements and upgrading playgrounds.

• Contributing to the construction of an early childhood education center to prepare students for kindergarten.

A prior District bond will be paid off this year. The current tax rate for all outstanding bonds is an estimated $1.76 per $1,000 of assessed value. This costs the owner of a $140,000 home in David Douglas approximately $250 per year.

The $49.5 million proposed bond is structured to replace the expiring bond so that the estimated levy required to pay it off over 20 years would not allow the overall rate to exceed $1.76 per $1,000. If the new bond is approved, it is estimated that property tax payers in David Douglas would not see an increase in their current property tax rates attributable to the bond.

From the school board minutes of  2/2/12 (here):

Ms. Midhgall described the methodology of the telephone survey of 300 likely district voters. The sample reflects the age distribution and demographics of our community. Ms. Ball remarked that The Children’s Institute paid for some questions which were tagged on to the survey, which would be reviewed as well

Ms. Midghall reviewed the general perceptions of the community, noting that public safety and K-12 schools ranked highest from a list of priorities, and that 62% have a positive view of David Douglas School district, with three in ten respondents having a very positive view. When asked whether they would vote for a bond, 43% responded with a firm yes, and another 18% with a likely yes. That combined 61% indicates that a bond would have a good chance of passing, with a well-organized campaign. In reviewing responses to a list of possible bond projects, top tier priorities were roof repairs, replacing old drinking fountains, and replacing floors with asbestos tile. Middle tier items were replacing textbooks, computers, and HVAC improvements. Items receiving lowest priority were security programs, gym floors, and covered play structures.

Ms. Ball presented some reflections on the survey results. Only 25% of our voters have children under 18, so it will be important to get information out to the broader community. The survey was designed for a May election, which would skew a little older in terms of turnout than a general election in November. The May ballot will be less crowded but turnout will be lower. Turnout in

May historically skews to age 55 and over, which are not necessarily the district’s biggest supporters. The survey did have high support in that age bracket, but support will be even higher in the younger bracket.

I do not live in the David Douglas School District, but I have visited it (here).  They describe themselves (here):

We currently have ten elementary schools, three middle schools and one high school with an alternative school campus. The district is a 12 square mile rectangle and spans east from I-205 to roughly SE 142nd and from Halsey Street on the North to the Clackamas County Line (S.E. Clatsop Street) to the South..

The David Douglas School District serves over 10,330 students from kindergarten through twelfth grade. Our students come from diverse backgrounds as 23.7% of our students are English Language Learners. At our last count we had 67 different languages spoken by our students.

I am against the David Douglas bond levy for the same reasons I opposed (and will oppose) Portland Public School (here) and Beaverton levy proposals. As I wrote about the Beaverton levy (here):

While I think we need to spend a lot more on education, we need to spend it much more wisely. The world is changing and we need to change the educational system before putting any more money into it. For the many reason given again and again on this blog, I oppose local levies by school districts that do not have high school study abroad programs (which, right now, is all school districts in Oregon). 

Politically, teachers unions have blocked efforts to create high school study abroad programs. Putting teaching jobs ahead of long term student interests, the Oregon Education Association has blocked creation of high school study abroad programs at the state level. The Portland Association of Teachers has done the same in Portland Public Schools. I’ve had no contact with the union representing the teachers of the David Douglas School District.

The David Douglas School District can easily change my position They can allocate $30,000 for a pilot high school study abroad program for the Fall of 2013. At $6,000 per student for five students, it is cost neutral, just shifting funds from paying for high school teachers to paying study abroad organization fees. The money follows the student. For info more see here.

I may take my placards to some busy street corners in the David Douglas School District.