Professor Daniel Drezner attended a Hoover institution conference on the implication of China’s evolving military. He reports on four areas of general consensus among its attendees in his blog post "What I learned about Sino-American relations yesterday." (here). Two follow:
2) If you want to worry about something, worry about China's civil-military relations. The U.S. defense establishment is quite keen on ramped-up military-to-military connections. It's the People's Liberation Army (PLA) that is not keen on this at all. The civilian leadership has... let's say limited control over numerous aspects of the PLA. Plus, the Chinese military has a corruption problem that makes the Bo Xilai scandal look like minor kerfuffle. Relations with the United States are difficult because of clashing interests... but also clashing styles. The PLA is quite transparent about intentions, but opaque about their capabilities. The United States is the reverse -- transparent about capabilities but ambiguous about intentions. This is not a recipe for comity…….
4) You know what would be super? The United States ratifying the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). There was unanimous consent the United States could do far more damage to itself than China ever could. Exhibit A on this front was the continued failure of the U.S. Senate to ratify UNCLOS. This is, in theory, the treaty that can provide the framework for resolving disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. It's a treaty backed by every president and secretary of state in the post-Cold War era. It's a treaty that the U.S. Navy desperately wants to see ratified. But because it hasn't happened yet, the U.S. always finds itself wrong-footed on these issues in negotiations. Well, I'm sure that in the current political climate, the Senate will eventually get around to it. Oh, wait...
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