There is a naked lie at the core of the proposed bond resolution on the 2/28/17 PPS agenda. And, without it, the rationale for building three 1,700 student high schools disappears. That lie is in section M(e) of the resolution. It says:” “That the Board concludes that the school district’s plan for 1,700 students at each of the existing and future high schools is well supported by current birth rates and kindergarten enrollments.”
"Well supported" by what data? Let us look at PPS’s own data:
First, for the past two years, PPS kindergarten enrollment has been going down. From “PPS, October 3rd, 2016 Enrollment - Summary Comparison” (here):
Second, the latest enrollment projections (“PSU Population Research Center Forecast of PPS Enrollment 2016-17 to 2030-31 based on October 2015 Enrollment,” here) show no increase in Portland births. Consider these two charts from page 12.