Dave Porter Weblog

Rising China

ABC Special title "Made in China: Your job, your future, your fortune."

"In the last 25 years, 400 million Chinese have risen out of crushing, dollar-a-day poverty. The average citizen's income has quadrupled. And with technology as the great equalizer, many people believe it is only a matter of time before the developing country develops into a rival superpower."

"China's not racing us to the bottom. They're racing us to the top. They do not want to work for General Motors, they want to be General Motors."

What Would it take to have 5 percent of high school students learning Chinese by 2015?

From the Asia Society report "Expanding Chinese Language Capacity in the United States: What Would it take to have 5 percent of high school students learning Chinese by 2015?"

Increasingly leaders from different sectors are recognizing the rise of Asia as one of the central facts of the twenty-first century. China, with its tremendous economic growth and emergence as a social and political leader in the region, is fundamental to this shift. China’s entry into the global market had profound effects on U.S. economy, foreign policy, culture, and society. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2004 total U.S. trade with China exceeded $230 billion, second only to trade with Canada and Mexico. For American entrepreneurs and multinational corporations, China’s population is an immense potential market for U.S. goods and services. As an emerging political power, China’s cooperation is needed to solve a range of issues. And, as the most enduring world civilization, China has a major international cultural presence, drawing on a tremendous heritage in literature and the arts. Chinese Americans are among the fastest growing minority groups, in the United States. Taking these dramatic trends together, the task of increasing the number of American students who can demonstrate a functional proficiency in the Chinese language is undeniably urgent. Indeed, interest in Chinese language has been growing rapidly, albeit from a small base. For example, between 1998 and 2002, the number of college students studying Chinese rose 20 percent to just over 34,000. In a 2004 College Board survey, 2,400 schools expressed interest in offering the Advanced Placement (AP) Course and Examination in Chinese (Mandarin) Language and Culture....

What would it take to have 5 percent of American high school students (approximately 750,000) learning Chinese by 2015? To reach this goal and to build the infrastructure to support a K–16 pipeline of Chinese language learners to meet national needs, three critical issues must be addressed:
• creating a supply of qualified Chinese language teachers;
• increasing the number and quality of school programs; and
• developing appropriate curriculum, materials, and assessments, includinge

China White Paper on National Defense

From Washington Post article "China Offers Glimpse of Rationale Behind Its Military Policies:

China warned Friday that the military landscape in northeast Asia is getting "more complicated and serious" because of North Korea's nuclear weapons program and tighter defense cooperation between Japan and the United States.

The Chinese views on regional security, articulated in a government white paper on national defense, provided a rare glimpse into the strategic assessments that underlie decisions and priorities of the secretive Chinese military and the Communist Party's policymaking Central Military Commission.

In part, the paper was designed as a response to repeated complaints from the Bush administration that China has not explained the rationale behind its long-term military improvement program. China's announced military budget has risen about 10 percent a year recently, reaching $35.4 billion in 2006, and Pentagon specialists estimate that also counting equipment expenditures would more than double it....

The paper said China's military improvements are part of the country's overall modernization and economic expansion. The effort will continue apace, it added, seeking to "lay a solid foundation" by 2010, make "major progress" by 2020 and "reach the strategic goal of building informationized armed forces and being capable of winning informationized wars by the mid-21st century."

Tom Barnett comments in his post "China's motives: sane as ours:"

So what is China guilty of in this last explanation of its vaunted defense build-up?

As a rising economic power they're doing to their military the same thing they've been doing to their economy for years now: swapping out cheap labor (here, ground troops) for high-tech capital (mostly air and naval, aping their model, otherwise known as the U.S. military). Why does the PLA ape the Pentagon? Who else should they logically ape?....

There are many in the military and especially the Air Force and Navy that just gotta have their conflict with China. Otherwise these guys must contemplate evolutions of their forces that they do not care to contemplate.

Too many Pentagon planners want to make the environment match the force, not the other way around. They'll tell you China spies on us and tries to steal our secrets, constantly trying to make their force more like ours. They'll tell you the big future threat we face is the loss of Taiwan. They simply don't want the war we've got, and if left to their own devices, will continue to build a force that's unprepared for that war--getting our people killed in the process....

MD: Schools add Mandarin classes

From article in the Baltimore Sun "Maryland schools join trend, add classes in Chinese:"

"We have a shrinking world," said State Superintendent Nancy S. Grasmick. "You are talking about 2.4 billion people. You are talking about an emerging economy. It is going to be an asset for people to speak Chinese."

So far, however, only a handful of school systems in the state have Chinese language courses: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Cecil, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George's counties. But there is a movement to add the language across the state and to start at an earlier age, which experts say greatly helps achieve proficiency.

Cars in China

From the We Observe the World post "Driving Ambition:"

The automobile is fast becoming much more than just a mode of transport for modern Chinese youth and the numbers are staggering.

There was a 15-per cent sales surge last year in the world's second-largest motor-vehicle market, with 5.9 million new cars sold to happy new drivers.

The reasons for buying a car are personal rather than practical. "Getting a driving license is a must for my generation, just like getting a computer," says Shen Xi, a student at the Communication University of China in Beijing. "It's a part of you, suggesting who you are and how you're doing in this ruthless modern society."

The 19-year-old obtained his driving license at 18, the legal driving age in China.

"Nowadays, to a young urbanite, not knowing how to drive is like saying you don't know how to ride a bike. Most of my classmates have driving licences ready for a car soon after we graduate and land a job."

The cost of a driving licence ranges from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan (US$375-625) and includes compulsory lessons at a certified driving school. There are 102 driving schools in Beijing.

Chrysler to import a small car from China

The Oregonian article "Chrysler to import a small car from China: The first vehicles could reach dealers in less than two years:"

The first Chinese cars could arrive in the U.S. in less than two years and be sold under an American brand name.

Chrysler Group, the U.S. unit of DaimlerChrysler AG, said Friday that it has signed a letter of intent with Chinese manufacturer Chery Automobile Co. for Chery (pronounced "cherry") to build a small car that Chrysler will market in North America, Europe and elsewhere.

Several Chinese auto companies want to sell vehicles in this country, and the planned arrival of a Chery-made product signals the coming of a new era of competition, decades after Japanese and South Korean car companies arrived in the United States.

Foreign Student Enrollment In Chinese Universities Expected To Increase Significantly

From the blog WOW, an online news magazine produced by the students of the Journalism Department of Beijing Foreign Studies University:

By 2020 Chinese universities will enroll 300,000 students from abroad, up from 140,000 in 2005, a Chinese educational official announced at a conference in Xinjiang recently and reported by the Xinhua News Agency.

The report said the information was released by Mr. Cao Guoxing, director-general with the International Cooperation and Exchange Department of the Ministry of Education, at a conference in Shihezi, northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Mr. Cao also said that the current 20 percent annual growth rate in foreign student enrollments was expected to drop to eight percent after 2020.

UT: Governor Huntsman speaks Mandarin

The Deseret Morning News article "Huntsman is leading trade mission to China" reports:

It isn't difficult to get Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. talking about China. Just a mention of the country can spark a lengthy discussion of everything from trade agreements to exotic foods — some of it in perfectly pronounced Mandarin.

Jon Huntsman Jr.

It's the result of all the time he spent in that part of the world, first as a missionary in Taiwan for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, where he picked up the language, then as U.S. ambassador to Singapore, and later as a U.S. trade representative in the region.

Letter to Oregon Progressives

The 74th Oregon Legislative Assemble begins 1/8/07. Both houses of the Legislature and the Governor's office will be controlled by Democrats. This is what I would advise them:

The most significant and substantial action the Oregon 74th Legislative Assembly could take for world peace is to fund dramatic increases in Mandarin language and study abroad in China programs for Oregon students. It should be on every progressive’s legislative agenda.

See if you agree with the NY investment guru in this video that “China is the next great country whether we like it or not. The best skill that I can give her (his daughter) is absolute fluency in Chinese Mandarin..."

 

Now Sino-US relations are about more than whether rich folks in NY City can find Mandarin speaking nannies to give their children advantages. Sino-US relations are the pivotal relations for world peace and stability. There are many contemporary crises (the Middle East, North Korea, terrorists, pandemics) but the central strategic and security issue of the 21st century will be the emergence of China as a world power and how the United States and China relate to each other. If these two great powers can get along, many other problems are solvable. If not, nuclear war and societal chaos are not impossible.             

We need to invest in the development of a generation of Mandarin proficient and China experienced students, then adult citizen, to tend to our relationship with China. The most important decision our next generation will make may be whether to go to war with China or not. We need to invest now to insure that their decision is made wisely and not on the basis of an inflated military threat such as Barnett, Lind, and Kaplan give us warnings.             

Currently, less that 1% of Oregon high school graduates have had two years or more of  Mandarin (not enough to be proficient). During the 2003-04 academic year, 1,877 Oregon University System students studied abroad (2.25% of the total enrollment of 79,558). Of those 35 studied abroad in China (1.86% of students studying abroad and 0.044% of total enrollment). These are not the statistics of a student generation prepared for the 21st century or to wisely manage Sino-US relations.             

Together with Rep. Dennis Richardson (I am still looking for an Oregon Democrat to promote this issue), I have a proposal “Developing the China Connection through Educational Programs” pending before the Oregon Business Plan. Mandarin programs assist economic development as well as world peace. I have my own $12 million proposal “Oregon Comprehensive Mandarin Development Program” seeking legislative and executive support. And I have started my own weblog (less a blog, more annotated links to relevant articles).          

More voices and ideas are needed on this issue. Educational programs are where the foreign policy of tomorrow starts. We can in Oregon promote our own constructive engagement with China. We might even, if we could summon the will for dramatic expansions in Mandarin programs, create a tilting point and change the course of world history.

John Edwards on China

John Edwards has announced his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination. He spoke before the Asia Society on "the Future of US-China Relation."

You know, it was clear to me before I went to China and it became even clearer while I was there, that there is no more important relationship that America has than our relationship with China. It's a relationship that, from my perspective as a Democrat, has not gotten the attention that it should have gotten over the last few years, for obvious reasons - Iraq, Iran, the Middle East, other priorities of this administration....

It was fairly startling to me - it won't be to most of you - that China is going to become the largest English-speaking country on the face of the planet because they require that their kids in school learn to speak English. And they are completely invested, both financially and emotionally, in closing the education gap that exists in China - both regionally and between the better off families and those that are poor. About half their kids major in science, math, technology - the areas which I think are critical to success in today's world. By comparison, they graduate somewhere around ten times the number of engineers that we graduate each year. So they're very, very focused. It was striking to me, both in terms of their domestic policy but also the way what I'm about to say informs their foreign policy. Basically, what they seem to want is, they want to stay focused on being successful internally, strengthening and growing their economy - not at any cost, but willing to take a significant amount of cost in order to accomplish that. And that includes things like environmental degradation and continuing their rise in the consumption of energy....

So the bottom line is, this relationship is enormously important, has not gotten the attention that it needs. I think that, by no means, is it pre-determined where this relationship is headed. There's great potential and there are great challenges. And we just need to engage this relationship with our eyes wide open in a thoughtful and visionary way. And I think there is great potential for success if we do that. Ignoring the relationship or not giving it the attention it deserves is a huge mistake.