William Lam a comments on China's increasiing militarization in his article "Beijing's Great Leap Outward: Power projection with Chinese characteristics" at The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief:
...A new generation of generals and strategists within the PLA apparently believes that Beijing has more to gain by attaining a "balance of terror" between China and the United States. As senior strategist Peng noted, "We are developing sophisticated equipment so as to realize the principle of ‘we've got whatever you've got.'" This balance of terror would deter the United States from engaging in activities that encroached upon Beijing's "core national interests." In the case of Taiwan, Beijing is convinced that the embattled ruling party in Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party, is likely to make a further push on independence so as to rally its base -- native Taiwanese primarily residing in southern Taiwan. Beijing believes that if the White House realizes that the PLA is well-equipped to disable U.S. spy satellites and target U.S. aircraft-carrier battle groups, Washington would be hesitant to come to Taiwan's aid.
There are also benefits, both tangible and intangible, that may accrue with China's achievement of quasi-superpower status. Given the United States' difficulties in Iraq and the perceived shrinkage of America's moral high ground in international affairs, countries in regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America may have pragmatic reasons to tilt toward a seemingly benign, foreign-aid dispensing China. This goodwill may translate into more favorable terms when Chinese state firms negotiate for oil contracts in Africa and Latin America. Moreover, thanks to the backing from large numbers of Third World countries, Beijing may be able to vote down motions at the UN and other world bodies that are deemed detrimental to the interests of Beijing and close allies, such as Burma and Iran.
There may also be overwhelming domestic calculations behind Hu's policies. With Chinese society becoming more fragmented due to the growing disparities between the haves and the have-nots, Beijing increasingly relies upon overarching ideals, such as patriotism and nationalism, to bind the disparate nation together. Spectacular demonstrations of the country's own military capabilities and diplomatic triumphs in Africa and Latin America make it easier for Hu and his PLA colleagues to justify even greater increases in the army's budget. And in the months leading up to the 17th Party Congress, Hu needs the support of the PLA generals in order to fully consolidate his stature in the CCP political hierarchy and legacy. All of these factors seem to impel the Fourth Generation leadership toward a much bolder -- if not riskier -- approach to the Middle Kingdom's centuries-old quest for fuguo qiangbing or "wealthy country, strong army."
Comments