Dave Porter Weblog

International Relations Professors report East Asia will be the most important region in 20 years

      

Article "Inside the Ivory Tower" by Maliniak, Oakes, Peterson and Tierney appearing in Foreign Policy reports on a survey of international relations professors:

International relations professors also demonstrate remarkable agreement when it comes to future challenges. When asked to identify the three most important foreign-policy issues the United States will face during the next 10 years, scholars overwhelmingly point to international terrorism (50 percent), proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (45 percent), and the rise of China (40 percent). Significant minorities consider armed conflict in the Middle East (34 percent), failed states (30 percent), and global warming (29 percent) to be top concerns. Surprisingly, given the periodic alarm raised in the media about the threat of a major pandemic, only 11 percent of academics deem it to be a pressing foreign-policy issue, placing it behind both global poverty (19 percent) and resource scarcity (14 percent).

At the same time, international relations scholars’ research may be shortsighted, given their own assessment of future foreign-policy challenges. Sixty-two percent of respondents believe the Middle East is the most strategically important region for the United States today, and two thirds report that East Asia will be the most important strategic region in 20 years. Yet only 7 percent of scholars identify the Middle East and just 8 percent name East Asia as the primary focus of their research. Occupants of the ivory tower, it seems, suffer from one of the disadvantages inherent in being so far removed from the policy process: They can be slow to respond to the emergence of new threats in the international system. If they hope to get a better audience with policymakers in the future, academics must do more than simply anticipate future challenges.

China's MG company

NY Times article "The Classical British Sports Car from China" by Craig S. Smith:

MG, the legendary British brand that expired after a lengthy illness, will be revived this month as a Chinese sports car when the Nanjing Automobile Corporation begins to produce convertible sports cars under that name in China...

...The investment agency that China is setting up to diversify its $1.1 trillion foreign exchange holdings could provide another boost, particularly as the government sees the entire world — including developing countries in Africa and Latin America — as its stage for acquisitions.

It began when the Chinese television and mobile telephone maker TCL bought the bankrupt Schneider Electronics of Germany in 2002. The computer maker Lenovo acquired I.B.M.’s troubled personal computer business in 2004.

Now, China Qianjiang Group, the largest motorcycle manufacturer in China, owns Benelli, the oldest motorcycle manufacturer in Italy. Shenyang Machine Tool Group has bought the 140-year-old German machine tool maker Schiess. Xinjiang Chalkis, a tomato producer, even owns a French tomato cannery and sells Chinese tomato sauce in Provence. All of those target companies were facing financial crises.

Many of China’s foreign purchases have been focused on energy resources, dominated by big state-owned enterprises like the national oil giants PetroChina and Cnooc, which have spent billions in recent years acquiring oil and natural gas fields. Those deals have helped swell the value of China’s foreign acquisitions to nearly $14 billion on more than 100 deals last year, from just $18.6 million in 1990, according to Thomson Financial, which tracks global investment trends....

Thomas Barnett comments in his post "What China will do with its money is what all people do with their money: use it to make them rich:"

...China’s government is now encouraging outbound FDI, which only increases the economy’s dense financial connectivity with the outside world, subjecting Beijing to more and more rules. It’s a totally natural progression, threatening only poorly run companies, who, quite frankly, should be devoured by somebody rather than linger and bring our economy down--however tangentially.

China’s playing up.  We can look down in fear, or we can look up ourselves and get on with it.

Fear is always the choice of the lazy.

Jobs aren’t eternal.  Talent is.

 

MI: More US Schools pin fortune on Chinese

Stateline.org article "More U.S. Schools pin fortune on Chinese" by Pauline Vu:

American students have been learning to say hola and bonjour for years now, but lately, more and more of them are learning to say ni hao.

Interest in learning Chinese has surged in the United States, as China has risen as a global and economic power. In 2000, there were about 5,000 students studying Mandarin Chinese in U.S. public schools, according to the American Council for the Teaching of Foreign Languages. Now that number is between 30,000 and 50,000, leaving states and districts scrambling to find enough qualified teachers.

This spring the College Board, which administers college-related exams, will debut an Advanced Placement (AP) test in Chinese, after a 2004 survey that found that about 2,400 high schools wanted to offer AP classes in Chinese.

“That was quite unexpected,” said Selena Cantor, the College Board’s director of Chinese language and culture. “It was a real wake-up, an important moment for us to recognize the interest that was out there.”

Cantor said the College Board expects 1,500 to 2,000 students to take the inaugural Chinese exam.

By contrast, last year 21,572 students took the French AP test, and 101,473 took the Spanish exam.

The federal government has provided one of the biggest boosts for Chinese. In January 2006, President Bush announced the National Security Language Initiative to increase Americans’ proficiency in “critical languages” such as Chinese, Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, Japanese and Russian. The program handed out $22 million in grants to states and districts to set up or expand language programs.

But none of the critical languages have taken off in K-12 public schools as fast as Chinese has. Out of 74 grants awarded under the initiative, 67 of them – as well as 75 percent of the money – went to Chinese programs, compared with only four programs for Arabic, according to Cynthia Ryan, the director of the initiative’s grants division.

Still, the demand for Chinese classes has far outpaced the supply of teachers. Shuhan Wang, the executive director of the Asia Society’s Chinese language initiative, said the U.S. has only about 300 to 400 qualified Chinese teachers – not nearly enough to serve the 2,400 schools that want to offer the language.

States are dealing with the shortage in several ways. Kentucky premiered an online Chinese course this school year, developed with the help of a teacher from China. Ohio is beginning a pilot program to train teachers to teach Mandarin to students in kindergarten through sixth grade. Arkansas has made it easier for already-certified teachers to get state certificates to teach Chinese.

The Chinese government has also stepped up to help fill the void. Hanban, a government agency working to spread Chinese around the world, has partnered with the College Board and several states to send volunteer teachers to the United States. The Chinese government pays part or all of the teacher’s salary while the school district pays for the teacher to live with a host family and handles visa arrangements and teacher certification.

The program is why the number of Connecticut students studying Chinese has increased tenfold over the last two years, from 300 to 3,000 students, said Mary Ann Hansen, the state education department’s World Languages consultant. Last year Connecticut hosted five Chinese teachers, and this year added another four with help from Hanban. One school that used a volunteer last year hired a teacher from Connecticut this year.

“(Districts) jumped to the plate when we offered this,” Hansen said.

One added bonus: The program helps low-income districts that otherwise could not afford to offer Chinese. The districts that are starting their own Chinese classes outside of the program tend to be richer, Hansen said. But thanks to the program, at least three low-income districts are teaching their students Chinese.

Minnesota also will soon begin a similar volunteer teacher program with China. In addition to that, last year the Legislature gave Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) $250,000 to convene a Chinese instruction task force soon after the governor returned from a trip to China in November 2005.

“He came home really convinced that our students needed to learn Mandarin Chinese because of the trade connections that we’ll be having with them in the future,” said Alice Seagren, the Minnesota Education Commissioner.

The task force has developed a Chinese language curriculum that districts can use. This year, Pawlenty’s two-year budget request included $500,000 to award to districts that want to offer Chinese classes. Currently, Minnesota has about 2,000 students studying Chinese, but Seagren said she thinks the state can eventually raise that number to 10,000.

DC: Arabic & Chinese Programs

Washington Times article "Center Speak up for Arabic, Chinese," by Amy Fagan:

Efforts to improve reading, math and science skills may be on the nation's educational forefront, but quieter efforts are being made by educators and the government to prepare children for the future by teaching them languages such as Arabic and Chinese.

    The National Foreign Language Center at the University of Maryland is spearheading one such effort by awarding federal grants averaging $100,000 to 34 groups in 21 states and the District, to teach the two languages in intensive camp and school programs this summer.

    Arabic and Chinese will be taught to some 1,100 high school students and an additional 600 Arabic and Chinese speakers will be trained how to teach the languages.

    "We need to start teaching critical languages like Arabic and Chinese much earlier in life, if the nation is to develop the skills needed for national security and economic competitiveness," said Catherine Ingold, the language center's director.

    The program is one of about a dozen in the National Security Language Initiative started by the Bush administration in 2006. Last weekend, the language center hosted program leaders in the District to help them develop strategies for setting up summer programs.

    "We're at a great disadvantage in terms of our ability to communicate with other countries," Ms. Ingold said. "We're pretty far behind the eight ball on that, as a nation."...

MA: Chinese Programs in Public Schools

Boston Globe article "As China's power grows, so do Chinese programs in public schools" by Adam Gorlick:

EASTHAMPTON, Mass. --In Alaska, students are calling their teacher "lao shi." In Illinois, they're learning that one plus one equals "er." And in western Massachusetts, kindergarten students who can sing their ABCs will soon start honing Mandarin accents.

Chinese, it seems, is becoming the new Latin in public schools.

At least 27 states offer Chinese language classes in either elementary, middle or high schools. And according to the Center for Applied Linguistics in Washington D.C., there are 12 public and private immersion schools across the country where most subjects are taught exclusively in Mandarin Chinese.

"It's about jobs and a world economy," said Richard Alcorn, who spearheaded the first Chinese immersion charter school in Massachusetts with his wife, Kathleen Wang. "There are unbelievable opportunities to do business in China, so there's a need for Americans to learn the language so we're not left out."

Leaders with vision who act boldly?

Testimony of Dave Porter Before Oregon House Education Committee

3/16/07

Chairman Buckley and member of the Committee, my name is Dave Porter. The following is testimony in support of HR 3, HJR 29 and HB 2763.

The issue is China, and are we preparing today’s students in Oregon for the challenges and opportunities that a rising China will pose over their lifetimes? The answer is: not at all.

            Consider the scale of the challenges: Columnist Thomas Friedman wrote “that when the history of this era is written, the trend that historians will cite as the most significant will not be 9/11 and the
U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. It will be the rise of China and India.” Columnist Nicholas D. Kristof wrote “I’m a believer in China, and I think it will end this century as the most important country in the world.” Scholar Jeffrey Sachs advised Americans to prepare for a world where by the year 2050 China’s economy could be 75% bigger than our own. China will be the most important, pivotal security relationship for the US in the 21^st century. War, peace, prosperity, pandemics, terrorism, and global warming all turn on US-China relations. What is at stake for us and our children is simply too enormous to continue to avoid.

             Put those thoughts on the future with where Oregon is now: Currently less than 1% of Oregon high schools graduates have had two years or more of  Mandarin. While some expansion is underway, it is unlikely to reach 2% soon. At the university level, less than 2% of the undergraduates at the U of O, OSU and PSU now study Mandarin. During the 2003-04 academic year, only 35 (0.044%) of the 79,558 students in the Oregon University System studied abroad in China. These are not the statistics of an educational system preparing students for the 21^st century or to engage a rising China constructively. We have done little to address the biggest issue of the 21^st century.

             We must begin to change what we are doing. HR 3, HJR 29 and HB 2763 all are positive steps in the direction we need to go. Oregon needs to invest in developing more Mandarin programs for its students K-16, featuring not the two years of high school foreign languages of the past, but more programs that produce fluent speakers able to function professionally in two languages and cultures. Fortunately, we know generally how to do this: start young, immerse the student and spend time in the foreign culture. Oregon has a few public and private language immersion programs that start in kindergarten. The U of O’s Center for Applied Second Language Studies, together with the Portland Public Schools, has had a federal grant to develop a national model for a K-16 Mandarin curriculum. The International School in Portland has produced fifth graders able to pass the Chinese government’s Mandarin exam for admission to Chinese universities. We know what to do K-5 and just need to do more of it. We need further work to find ways to make immersion and heritage programs work in middle school and high schools. We need more entry Mandarin programs after the elementary years. We need distance learning Mandarin programs for students in districts without Mandarin classes. We need to develop teacher exchange programs. And, most important, we need to find ways to send many, many more high school and college students to China to study. So we have much work to do.

             HR 3, HJR 29, and HB 2763 are a good start. We will need to do much more in the future. I dream of an Oregon that does more, an Oregon that sends this message to other states, to China, and to the rest of the world: Oregon understands the challenges of the 21^st century. We may not like them, but we see them clearly and will meet them. And then, I dream further, those future historians of Tom Friedman as they write their histories of this era will note that Oregon had a generation of leaders, writing of us, with vision who acted boldly to provide the tipping point for a century of global peace and prosperity. Our children deserve this from us.

 Thank you for your consideration.

Chinese Star Architect Ma Yansong

Another episode on life in China today from the internet TV station Danwei, part of their Hard Hat series. It is 8 minutes 15 seconds long. This episode of the Hard Hat Show is about Ma Yansong, a young architect whose Beijing firm Mad recently won an international competion for the design of a landmark residential tower in Mississauga, Canda's seventh largest city. Dubbed the 'Marilyn Monroe Building', it is a spectacular and sensuous skyscraper that was the favorite choice of the judges, the press and the public.

Danwei TV recently caught up with Ma and asked him some questions about the Marilyn Monroe Building, and his views on architecture in China.

To see more of Mad's work, take a look at their www.i-mad.com

This video was shot and edited by Luke Mines, the clip is presented by Jeremy Goldkorn, with music by Fernando Fidanza and Jerry Chan.

Oregon House Resolution 3

 Note: First version is as it now appears. Second version is as I drafted it.

First version: House Resolution 3
 
Sponsored by Representative CANNON; Representatives BARKER,
  BARNHART, BONAMICI, BRUUN, BUCKLEY, CLEM, D EDWARDS, ESQUIVEL,
  GIROD, HOLVEY, HUNT, KRUMMEL, OLSON, RICHARDSON, ROBLAN,
  ROSENBAUM, WHISNANT, WITT (at the request of Dave Porter)
 
 
                             SUMMARY
 
The following summary is not prepared by the sponsors of the
measure and is not a part of the body thereof subject to
consideration by the Legislative Assembly. It is an editor's
brief statement of the essential features of the measure as
introduced.
 
  Urges Oregon universities, community colleges and secondary
schools to encourage Oregon students to learn Mandarin Chinese
and to explore opportunities to study in China.
 
                        HOUSE RESOLUTION
  Whereas China is the number one exporter of goods to the United
States; and
  Whereas according to economists, China will become the world's
wealthiest nation by the year 2012; and
  Whereas 24 percent of the world's population speaks Chinese;
and
  Whereas Oregon universities, community colleges and secondary
schools, in recognition of the increasing importance of China to
the United States, should encourage Oregon students to learn
Mandarin Chinese, the official state language of China, and
explore ways to expand language courses to include Mandarin
Chinese; and
  Whereas knowledge of foreign cultures is invaluable, Oregon
students should be encouraged to explore opportunities to study
in China; now, therefore,
Be It Resolved by the House of Representatives of the State of
  Oregon:
  That we, the members of the House of Representatives of the
Seventy-fourth Legislative Assembly urge Oregon universities,
community colleges and secondary schools to encourage Oregon
students to learn Mandarin Chinese and to explore opportunities
to study in China.

Second version: earlier draft: 

Joint Resolution
Draft 12/6/06

Whereas, China has a population of 1.3 billion people; and
Whereas, China has had an averaged 9.8% growth in their Gross Domestic Product since 1978; and
Whereas, China holds over $300 billion in United States Treasury bonds; and
Whereas, China sustained a five-fold growth in total output per capita from 1982 to 2002; and
Whereas, the United States trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005; and
Whereas, China has passed the United States in the consumption of mobile phone, TV sets and refrigerators; and
Whereas, General Motors expects the Chinese automobile market to be bigger than the United States market by 2025; and
Whereas, more people use the internet in China than in the United States; and
Whereas, more than 300 million rural Chinese will move to cities in the next fifteen years requiring China to build the urban infrastructure equivalent to Portland every week in order to absord them; and
Whereas, China has as many speakers of English as a second language as there are people who speak English as their first language in the United States, Canada and Great Britain combined; and
Whereas, China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50% while the United States has about $158 billion in personal savings and a savings rate of  2%; and
Whereas, China has between 100 and 160 cities with a population of 1 million or more compared to 9 such cities in the United States; and
Whereas, China graduates 442,000 new engineers per year compared to 60,000 new engineer graduates per year in the United States; and
Whereas, Oregon’s exports to China are climbing (In the first quarter of 2005 Oregon exported $138 million of goods to China. In the first quarter of 2006, that number grew by 131% to $319 million); and
Whereas, China is an awakening giant that will dominate global manufacturing, agriculture, natural resource use and tourism for the foreseeable future; and
Whereas, the most important global security relationship in the twenty-first century is between China and the United States; and
Whereas, Oregon’s future economic development will depend upon having Oregonians who speak Chinese languages in China assessing Chinese markets and product innovations; and
Whereas, United States national security will depend upon having United States citizens fluent in Chinese and familiar with China;

Now, therefore, Be It Resolved by the House of Representatives and Senate of the State of Oregon: That we, the members of the Seventy-Fourth Legislative Assembly, declare that for world peace, national security and economic development reasons, it is in the public interest of Oregon and the United States that:

(1) Many more Oregon students study Mandarin and study in China; and

(2) K-12 schools, colleges and universities in Oregon provide opportunities for students to study Mandarin and to study in China;

(3) Oregon students are urged to study Mandarin.

OR: China's Pollution Changing Oregon Weather

Oregonian article "China's dirty air threatens darker day for Northwest: Research suggests pollution over the Pacific will make Oregon wetter, cooler" by Richard L. Hill:

Severe air pollution from Asia is expanding the winter cloud cover over the north Pacific Ocean and could bring cooler, wetter weather to the Northwest, a new study suggests.

The booming industrial age in China and India has fired up factories, cook stoves, diesel engines and coal plants, sending gritty particles blowing over the Pacific Ocean toward North America. Those particles have expanded clouds in the storm track that sweeps west to east across the Pacific each winter, researchers say. Those changes ultimately could alter weather patterns in the U.S. and even globally.

"The bottom line from our study is that if you change the Pacific storm system, then you're going to change the weather in some places," said Renyi Zhang, a professor of atmospheric chemistry at Texas A&M. "This is definitely going to change the weather system over the United States."

The pollutants sweep into the Northwest with storms and prevailing wind, bringing dust, salt, soot and fine particles of mercury, arsenic, copper, lead and zinc across the Pacific in a few days. The particles can alter the size of the water droplets that form clouds. The larger, deeper clouds that result would reflect more sunlight back into space, cooling the surface, as well as boosting the chance of precipitation, Zhang said.

The researchers looked only at the cloud changes -- mostly brought on by soot and sulfate particles from such activities as coal burning -- not what specific weather changes resulted. "But this is the first study that demonstrates that pollution can change a part of the weather system, which in turn can change the climate," Zhang said....

Rumblings Over Taiwan

Article "China Fury at Chen's Taiwan Call" on BBC News:

China has hit out at Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian after he made a strongly pro-independence speech on Sunday.

Mr Chen said Taiwan should pursue independence, write a new constitution and change its official name from "Republic of China" to Taiwan.China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said anyone wanting to split Taiwan from the mainland was a "criminal". " The row came as China opened its annual session of parliament and announced a hike in defence spending.

Mr Chen, in a speech to a pro-independence group on Sunday, said: "Taiwan should be independent". "Taiwan is a country whose sovereignty lies outside the People's Republic of China," he added, referring to China by its formal name.He spoke of a "four wants" policy - namely independence, a new constitution, further development and a change to the country's officially designated name.

Since taking office, President Chen has sought to emphasise the island's separate identity, the BBC's Caroline Gluck in Taipei says. But his latest comments are his strongest since taking office and raise new worries of increased tensions with China as well as Taiwan's main ally, the US, our correspondent adds.

Those fears contributed to falls on Taiwan's stock market on Monday and a weakening of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar. Opposition leaders accused him of being irresponsible and putting Taiwan at risk of a possible war with China.

China sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to use force if the island ever moved to declare formal independence.

The United States is committed to supplying Taiwan with defensive weapons, but opposes any Taiwanese provocation of China....