Tom Barnett in his World Politics Review article “The New Rules: Obama Must Avoid the ‘China Treat’ Trap” again argues against making the “China treat” central to US national security policy. From that article (here):
…..We have just lived through an unprecedented global expansion that effectively bypassed our sacred middle class. Benjamin Friedman, in his masterful book, "The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth," explained why that matters: When incomes are rising and America's middle class feels confident about the future, this country truly is the "shining city on the hill." We welcome immigrants and present an open stance to the world on trade and investment. We progressively improve our laws and society. In foreign policy, we are entirely admirable in our pursuits and sensibilities, welcoming "rising" powers and seeking their inclusion.
But whenever we encounter periods in which incomes go flat or decline, America typically moves down entirely opposite pathways. We turn on immigrants and fight the world on trade. We pass restrictive and spiteful laws, and our politicians fight mindlessly over the carcass of our collective future. We find other countries' investments suspicious, no matter how much we may need them. And we loathe "risers," viewing their success as a zero-sum "theft" of potential growth we assume we'd otherwise enjoy like some birthright.
That effectively sums up where we are now. We could balance trade with China if we accepted the logic of deeper interdependency with the world's most vibrant economy. We could sell them arms and technology that they currently buy from others if we chose not to view them as our default enemy of tomorrow. We could accept their investments in our country's distressed companies and not merely in our sovereign debt markets, where their purchases of Treasury notes only enables our greater indebtedness -- and feeds resentment of that codependent financial relationship. Similarly distressed Europe is moving toward such acceptance, and eventually we will too, given the right future crisis points. The only question is how much more our pride and fear will cost us in the meantime.
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