Bruce Gilley, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Portland State University, spoke at the World Affairs Council of Oregon on Wednesday, 7/18/12. His topic was “China’s Rocky Political Transition.”
Gilley likened China’s current political transition to a family feud, in a family that got rich quickly and has not settle on ways to work out conflicts. Further, the governing Communist Party is trying to figure out how to govern without being blamed for everything.
The current feud, as Gilley sees it, has two main factions, each lead by one of the two current Politburo Standing Committee members likely to carry over into the next Standing Committee.
On the one had, there is Xi Jinping, likely to become the next President of China, replacing Hu Jintao. He leads a faction that emphasizes top down decisions, strong state enterprises, economic growth, and a strong, nationalistic foreign policy.
On the other hand, there is Li Keqiang, likely to become China’s next prime minister. He leads a more leftist faction concerned with traditional Marist beliefs, rebuilding the welfare state, direct democracy at the village level, and a more grass roots governance design.
The current political transition is taking place as the economy slows down, popular discussion of democracy increases and conflicts with neighbors over South China Sea issues rise.
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